海上船舶碰撞事故态势研究

发布时间：2018-03-27 17:08

本文选题：海上交通　切入点：船舶碰撞事故　出处：《集美大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随海洋经济的快速发展,海上船舶运输需求与日俱增,致使海域通航情况更趋复杂,海上交通安全风险逐年增大。而船舶碰撞事故是各类海难事故中发生率最高的,事故一旦发生将造成难以避免的经济损失、环境污染甚至人身伤亡。而在事故发生后如何根据变化的危害程度准确地确定事故等级,如何根据现场状况进行紧急有效的救援工作,才是应急处置中应该关注的重点。为此,本文在船舶碰撞事故特性和态势分析的基础上,并利用贝叶斯网络建立船舶碰撞事故态势模型,研究各种影响因素与事故之间错综复杂的关系,掌握事故的发生与发展规律,以提高我国海上交通安全管理水平,降低事故危害程度。本文的主要研究内容为:1)船舶碰撞事故特性分析:根据以往的研究结果和事故调查,对海上船舶碰撞事故特点、等级、致灾因素等特性进行分析,通过收集的事故数据和前人研究资料,梳理出对船舶碰撞事故态势影响较大的相关要素,为后期网络节点的选取做铺垫。2)船舶碰撞事故态势要素指标:依据船舶碰撞事故特性分析,借鉴道路交通领域相关研究,将态势研究的概念引入到海上船舶碰撞事故应急处置中,从事故发生发展阶段出发,结合专家调查结果,构建船舶碰撞事故态势要素指标。3)可行性分析:根据研究背景和国内外研究现状,对比几种常用的态势研究方法,从海上船舶运输角度出发,详细分析贝叶斯网络在海上船舶碰撞事故态势领域的可行性。4)基于贝叶斯网络的船舶碰撞事故态势建模:在贝叶斯网络建模方法及各种学习算法下,提出分层贝叶斯网络的船舶碰撞事故态势模型,探究主要因素影响下事故的发生、发展和生成最终结果的内在规律。最后以福建辖区为例,用MATLAB软件验证模型的可行性和合理性。本文的研究成果可用于揭示在各项因素影响下船舶碰撞事故的发生、发展和生成最终结果的内在规律,预测事故态势变化和事故持续时间,便于及时对船舶碰撞事故进行有效控制和合理处置,降低事故危害程度。研究成果可为海上交通事故应急处置决策、海事管理部门编制应急预案提供科学依据,这对提高我国海上交通安全管理,保障海上运输的高效安全,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of marine economy, the demand of maritime ship transportation is increasing day by day, which makes the navigation situation more complicated, and the risk of maritime traffic safety increases year by year. The ship collision accident is the highest incidence of all kinds of maritime accidents. Once an accident occurs, it will cause unavoidable economic losses, environmental pollution and even human casualties. After the accident, how to accurately determine the accident grade according to the varying degree of harm, How to carry on the emergency and effective rescue work according to the situation of the scene is the focus of the emergency disposal. Therefore, based on the analysis of the characteristics and situation of the ship collision accident, Using Bayesian network to establish ship collision accident situation model, to study the complicated relationship between various factors and accidents, to master the occurrence and development of accidents, in order to improve the level of maritime traffic safety management in China. The main contents of this paper are: 1) Analysis of the characteristics of ship collision accident: according to the previous research results and accident investigation, the characteristics of ship collision accident characteristics, class, disaster factors and other characteristics are analyzed. Based on the collected accident data and previous research data, the relevant factors which have a great influence on the situation of ship collision accidents are sorted out. For the later network node selection. 2) ship collision accident situation factor index: according to the characteristics of ship collision accident analysis, referring to the relevant research in the field of road traffic, This paper introduces the concept of situation study into the emergency disposal of marine collision accident, starting from the development stage of the accident, combining with the results of the expert investigation, According to the background of the research and the current research situation at home and abroad, comparing several common situation research methods, starting from the point of view of maritime ship transportation, the feasibility analysis of constructing ship collision accident situation factor index .3). The feasibility of Bayesian network in the field of marine collision accident situation. 4) the modeling of ship collision accident situation based on Bayesian network: under the Bayesian network modeling method and various learning algorithms, A ship collision accident situation model based on hierarchical Bayesian network is proposed to explore the inherent law of the occurrence, development and final result of the accident under the influence of main factors. Finally, taking Fujian province as an example, The feasibility and rationality of the model are verified by MATLAB software. The research results in this paper can be used to reveal the inherent law of the occurrence, development and final result of ship collision accident under the influence of various factors. In order to predict the change of accident situation and the duration of accident, it is convenient to control and dispose ship collision accident effectively and reasonably, and to reduce the degree of accident harm. The research results can be used for the decision of emergency disposal of marine traffic accident. The establishment of emergency plan by maritime administration department provides scientific basis, which has certain theoretical value and practical significance to improve the management of maritime traffic safety and ensure the high efficiency and safety of maritime transportation.
【学位授予单位】：集美大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698.6

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