我国进口原油海上运输安全系统评价及预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 21:02

本文选题：原油进口　切入点：海运安全　出处：《大连海事大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：2010年1月27日,国家能源委员会成立,表明中国正从更高的全球视野来审视能源的战略地位,保证国家能源安全。近年来,由于交通运输、农业机具的大量增加,工业部门用煤限制加大,加速了原油的消费,为了弥补国内原油生产能力的不足,使得近年来原油进口量总体上呈迅速攀升的趋势,据海关统计2012年我国原油进口量已达到2.71亿吨,原油对外依存度为56.4%。原油贸易90%以上是由海上运输完成的,然而我国“国油国运”比例却远低于美国、日本、韩国等原油进口国,这使得我国原油运输长期以来受制于人。较高的进口依存度,加之变幻莫测的国际形势,特别是原油产国的局势变动,对我国原油进口安全提出了严峻的挑战。因此,对我国现阶段进口原油海上运输安全和未来发展趋势进行分析研究,建立我国进口原油海上运输安全评价与预警系统已成为保障我国经济稳定发展亟待解决的问题。本文在分析了1996年至2012年我国原油进口的海运量需求情况的基础上运用趋势外推方法、灰色预测和BP神经网络的的组合预测模型,对2013年至2017年我国原油进口海运量进行预测,运用二次曲线趋势外推法、线性二次移动平均法、线性二次指数平滑法等预测方法,对2013年至2017年我国各原油进口海运航线上的海运需求量进行预测。在对我国油轮船队运力分析的基础上,建立基于承运份额考虑的油轮船队多阶段动态规划数学模型,为我国原油进口海运船队规模优化提供决策参考。然后系统分析了我国原油进口海运安全的影响因素,构建了我国原油进口海运安全评价体系,并应用基于云模型的综合评价方法对目前我国原油进口海运安全系统进行评价。最后,建立了我国原油进口海运安全预警模型,运用Visual Basic6.0编程语言建立了我国原油进口海运安全预警系统,对未来我国原油进口海运安全的发展趋势进行预测,并分别根据五个预警子系统预警分析结果,提出了保障我国原油进口海运安全的预控措施和保障机制。上述研究成果具有重要的理论与现实意义。
[Abstract]:On January 27, 2010, the National Energy Commission was established, indicating that China is examining the strategic position of energy from a higher global perspective to ensure national energy security. Increased restrictions on coal use in the industrial sector have accelerated the consumption of crude oil. In order to make up for the shortage of domestic crude oil production capacity, the import of crude oil in recent years has generally shown a trend of rapid increase. According to customs statistics, China's crude oil imports reached 271 million tons in 2012, and its dependence on foreign crude oil was 56.4. More than 90 percent of the crude oil trade was completed by sea transportation. However, the proportion of China's "national oil and national transportation" is far lower than that of the United States and Japan. For crude oil importing countries such as South Korea, this has made China's crude oil transportation under the control of people for a long time. The high degree of import dependence, coupled with the unpredictable international situation, especially the changes in the situation of crude oil producing countries, This paper presents a severe challenge to the import safety of crude oil in China. Therefore, the paper analyzes and studies the maritime transportation safety and future development trend of imported crude oil in China at the present stage. It has become an urgent problem to establish the safety evaluation and early warning system for China's import crude oil maritime transportation to ensure the stable development of our country's economy. Based on the analysis of the demand of China's crude oil import volume from 1996 to 2012, the trend extrapolation method, the combined forecasting model of grey forecast and BP neural network are used in this paper. The prediction of China's crude oil import volume from 2013 to 2017 is carried out by using quadratic trend extrapolation method, linear quadratic moving average method, linear quadratic exponential smoothing method, and so on. Based on the analysis of the shipping capacity of China's tanker fleet, the multi-stage dynamic programming mathematical model of tanker fleet is established based on the analysis of the shipping capacity of China's tanker fleet, which is based on the forecast of the demand for marine transportation on China's crude oil import shipping routes from 2013 to 2017. This paper provides a decision reference for the scale optimization of China's crude oil import maritime fleet, and then systematically analyzes the influencing factors of China's crude oil import maritime transport safety, and constructs an evaluation system of China's crude oil import maritime transport safety. Finally, an early warning model of China's crude oil import maritime security is established by using a comprehensive evaluation method based on cloud model. Using Visual Basic6.0 programming language, the paper establishes the early warning system of China's crude oil import maritime transportation security, forecasts the development trend of China's crude oil import maritime transportation security in the future, and analyzes the results according to the warning results of five early warning subsystems respectively. This paper puts forward the pre-control measures and guarantee mechanism for the safety of China's crude oil import and shipping. The above research results have important theoretical and practical significance.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.3;U695.28

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