洪水避难分析系统的研究开发及其应用

发布时间：2018-03-31 07:04

本文选题：洪水模拟　切入点：避难分析　出处：《水利学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：随着经济社会快速发展,洪水高风险区中人口资产密度增大,受全球气候变化影响,台风、极端暴雨等形成的洪水灾害给高风险区的人员资产带来更大的威胁。危机时刻,如何更为有效、有序地组织灾区民众的避难转移是减少伤亡和损失的重要手段。本文从水文水力学、灾害学与地理信息科学等交叉视角,利用二维洪水仿真模型进行洪水演进模拟分析,对需避难转移人员及其空间分布特征进行识别;提出安置区的选择规划及优化匹配方法;建立最优转移路径分析模型及道路拥堵计算模型;在GIS平台上集成相关模型方法,开发洪水避难分析系统。在荆江分洪区进行了实例应用研究,建立了荆江分洪区的洪水模拟分析模型,用1954年分洪的实况洪水进行分洪区的洪水演进模拟分析,根据分析结果将分洪区划分为危险重灾区、深水重灾区和进洪轻灾区3个危险区域,利用荆江分洪区2014年分洪预案进行1954年实况分洪情景下的避难转移模拟分析,提出了基于洪水演进特征的分批次转移的改进优化方案。应用实例研究表明,本文建立的模型方法和相关系统具有较好的实用价值,可以为分蓄洪区等区域洪水避难方案的制定提供分析优化手段。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy and society, the density of population assets in high risk flood areas has increased, and the flood disasters caused by global climate change, typhoons, extreme rainstorms and other flood disasters have posed a greater threat to the assets of people in high risk areas. How to organize the evacuation and transfer of the people in the disaster area more effectively and orderly is an important means to reduce the casualties and losses. This paper focuses on the intersection of hydrohydraulics, disaster science and geographic information science. By using the two-dimensional flood simulation model, the flood routing simulation analysis is carried out to identify the persons in need of refuge transfer and their spatial distribution characteristics, and the method of selecting and planning the resettlement area and optimizing the matching method are put forward. The optimal transfer path analysis model and the road congestion calculation model are established, and the flood asylum analysis system is developed by integrating the relevant model methods on the GIS platform. A case study is carried out in the Jingjiang flood diversion area. The flood simulation analysis model of Jingjiang flood diversion area is established, and the flood routing simulation analysis of flood diversion area is carried out by using the real flood of 1954 flood diversion area. According to the results of the analysis, the flood diversion area is divided into dangerous disaster areas. In the three dangerous areas of deep water heavy disaster area and flood light disaster area, using the 2014 flood diversion plan of Jingjiang flood diversion area to simulate and analyze the asylum transfer under the 1954 actual flood diversion scenario, An improved optimization scheme of batch transfer based on flood routing characteristics is proposed. The application examples show that the model method and related system established in this paper have good practical value. It can be used to analyze and optimize the flood shelter scheme in flood diversion and storage area.
【作者单位】：中国水利水电科学研究院;水利部防洪抗旱减灾工程技术研究中心;
【基金】：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(1261430110037) 中国水利水电科学研究院重点专项(JZ0145B042017)
【分类号】：X43

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