安全生产标准化系统动力建模及策略分析研究

发布时间：2018-04-01 03:14

本文选题：安全生产标准化　切入点：系统发展动力　出处：《中国地质大学(北京)》2015年博士论文

【摘要】：作为国家强化“双基”工作的一项重要举措,安全生产标准化在全国范围内的高危重点行业不断地得到创建与认证,取得了较为显著的效果。但是,在实际运行过程中,由于企业对安全生产标准化的认知水平不足、国家政策的针对性与激励效应不强、服务市场不规范等原因,安全生产标准化工作出现了国家推进难、行业指导难、企业达标难等问题。企业只为一纸达标认证,而将标准化的保障作用抛之不顾,这与安全生产标准化的根本目的背道而驰。因此,本文运用系统科学的相关理论,将安全生产标准化视为系统,理清了安全生产标准化系统中的六方推进主体,从系统动力的角度,通过系统分析、文献沉淀、问卷调查、计算机建模等方法,探索了安全生产标准化系统动力的诸多影响要素,利用结构方程模型检验了各因素之间的作用关系并建立相应的模型,运用系统动力学的方法对安全生产标准化系统进行了动力建模与策略模拟分析,探讨了安全生产标准化系统动力综合模型的构建和模拟目标实现策略途径。本论文主要得出以下结论:(1)提出了安全生产标准化系统及其发展动力的概念,界定了其内涵与边界,确定了安全生产标准化系统动力的影响要素,包括外部环境动力和运行机制效力及其相应的各个维度,并运用结构方程建模方法检验了它们之间的作用关系及模型。(2)安全生产标准化系统的外部环境动力对内部运行机制效力的正向作用极其显著。六方主体的运行机制效力中,企业机制对总体运行机制效力的影响最大。外部环境动力中,安全政策动力的影响最大,安全文化动力对安全需求、安全政策、安全法规等方面的动力正向影响也比较明显。(3)构建了安全生产标准化系统动力模型,其中包括系统动力子模型、客观环境子模型和发展需求子模型。建立了各模型中的水平变量、速率变量、辅助变量及常量之间的函数关系。(4)模拟了不同投入比例政策、市场价格政策、权重分配方案等条件下,保障从业人数、员工伤亡概率和系统发展动力的未来变化趋势,并做出详细的原因分析、对应策略和政策建议。
[Abstract]:As an important measure to strengthen the work of "double base", the standardization of production safety has been continuously established and certified in the key industries with high risk in the whole country, and has achieved remarkable results.However, in the actual operation process, due to the lack of awareness of safety production standardization in enterprises, the weak pertinence and incentive effect of national policies, the non-standard service market, and so on, it is difficult for the country to promote the standardization of production safety.Industry guidance is difficult, enterprises are difficult to meet standards and other problems.Enterprises only for a paper standard certification, and the guarantee of standardization regardless of, which is contrary to the fundamental goal of standardization of production safety.Therefore, using the relevant theories of system science, this paper regards the safety production standardization as a system, clarifies the main body of the six-party promotion in the safety production standardization system, from the system dynamic angle, through the system analysis, the literature precipitation, the questionnaire survey,By computer modeling and other methods, this paper explores many factors that affect the power of standardization system of safety production, and uses the structural equation model to test the relationship between the factors and establish the corresponding model.The dynamic modeling and strategy simulation analysis of the safety production standardization system are carried out by using the method of system dynamics, and the construction of the dynamic synthesis model of the safety production standardization system and the way of realizing the simulation goal are discussed.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) this paper puts forward the concept of safety production standardization system and its development power, defines its connotation and boundary, and determines the influencing factors of the power of safety production standardization system.Including the external environmental dynamics and the effectiveness of the operational mechanism and its corresponding dimensions,The structural equation modeling method is used to test the relationship between them and the positive effect of the external environmental power of the safety production standardization system on the effectiveness of the internal operation mechanism.The enterprise mechanism has the greatest influence on the effectiveness of the overall operating mechanism of the main body of the six parties.Among the external environmental dynamics, the influence of safety policy power is the greatest, and the positive influence of safety culture power on safety demand, safety policy, safety regulations and so on is obvious. (3) the dynamic model of safety production standardization system is constructed.It includes system dynamic submodel, objective environment submodel and development demand submodel.The functional relationship between horizontal variable, rate variable, auxiliary variable and constant in each model is established. (4) under the conditions of different input proportion policy, market price policy, weight distribution scheme and so on, the number of employees is guaranteed.Employee casualty probability and future trends of system development power, and make detailed cause analysis, corresponding strategies and policy recommendations.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X913

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