突发公共事件应急预案动力学模型与模拟研究

发布时间：2018-04-03 02:36

本文选题：突发公共事件　切入点：应急预案　出处：《电子科技大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：伴随着人类文明的不断进步，社会化进程的不断加快，人类改造社会的要求也愈发强烈，同时应运而生的社会问题也突显出来。近年来集中爆发的突发公共事件以其极大的规模、巨大的破坏力、深远的影响给予人类沉重的打击。在反思自己行为的同时，我们也不得不加大应对突发公共事件的投入力度。从硬件设施到软件管理，从预警机制到恢复重建，在每一项工作中我们必须力求科学、严谨。以此，突发公共事件的灾害损失才有可能降到相对最低。而在复杂的应急处置过程中，应急预案扮演着极其重要的角色，也可以说它的作用是决定性的。对于应急预案的研究，我们思考了应急预案体系，分析了应急预案的编制，这些都为以后进一步完善应急预案提供了宝贵的经验。然而，在突发公共事件的实际应对中，事件的具体发展状况往往是不受控制的，此时，原有应急预案已经不能适应事件的发展，于是基于及时信息反馈的预案调整就成了我们必须解决的问题。本研究正是针对上述问题，，以突发公共事件应急预案为主要研究对象，在详细分析突发公共事件及应急预案相关管理的基础上，结合系统动力学，对突发公共事件应急预案影响因素进行了系统分析，进而建立动力学模型。本文主要包括六个部分：第一部分：分析突发公共事件及应急预案国内外研究现状，确定本文技术路线，提出本文研究目的。第二部分：分析系统动力学相关理论及其发展状况，确定系统建模的步骤和方法。第三部分：分析对突发公共事件的定义，在此基础上展开对其的界定，了解突发公共事件特性，提出本文分类标准。第四部分：进行系统思考、突发公共事件应急预案系统性原理分析、应急预案模型边界设定等过程，分析各类事件应急预案系统各影响因素的相互作用及因果关系，建立突发公共事件应急预案的SD模型。第五部分：建立模型模拟方案，进行模拟，分析模拟结果，同时提出相应调整措施。第六部分：进行全文总结，提出研究的不足与展望。
[Abstract]:With the continuous progress of human civilization and the acceleration of socialization, the demands of human beings to transform the society are becoming more and more intense, and the social problems that have emerged at the same time have also been highlighted.In recent years, the sudden public events with its great scale, great destructive power and far-reaching impact have dealt a heavy blow to mankind.As we reflect on our behavior, we also have to step up our efforts to deal with public emergencies.From hardware facilities to software management, from early warning mechanisms to recovery and reconstruction, we must strive for science and rigour in every task.In this way, the disaster loss of sudden public events is likely to be reduced to a relatively minimum.In the process of complex emergency disposal, emergency plan plays an extremely important role, which can be said to be decisive.For the study of emergency plan, we think about the system of emergency plan, and analyze the preparation of emergency plan, which provide valuable experience for further perfecting emergency plan in the future.However, in the actual response to public emergencies, the specific development situation of the incident is often uncontrolled. At this time, the original emergency plan can no longer adapt to the development of the event.Therefore, the adjustment of the plan based on timely information feedback becomes the problem that we must solve.This research is aimed at the above problems, taking the emergency plan of public emergency as the main research object, on the basis of the detailed analysis of the emergency public event and emergency plan related management, combined with the system dynamics,The influencing factors of public emergency emergency plan are analyzed systematically, and then the dynamic model is established.This paper mainly includes six parts:The first part: analyze the research status of public emergencies and emergency plans at home and abroad, determine the technical route of this paper, and put forward the purpose of this paper.The second part: analyze the theory of system dynamics and its development, and determine the steps and methods of system modeling.In the third part, the definition of public emergency is analyzed, based on which, the characteristics of public emergency are defined, and the classification standard of this paper is put forward.The fourth part: the systematic thinking, the systematic principle analysis of public emergency emergency plan, the boundary setting of emergency plan model and so on, the analysis of the interaction and causality of all kinds of influencing factors of emergency plan system.The SD model of emergency planning for public emergencies was established.The fifth part: set up the model simulation scheme, simulate, analyze the simulation results, and put forward the corresponding adjustment measures.The sixth part: carry on the full text summary, proposed the research insufficiency and the prospect.
【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：D035.2;X913

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