航班运行风险因素耦合性分析

发布时间：2018-04-03 17:10

  本文选题：航班安全　切入点：运行风险耦合　出处：《中国安全科学学报》2017年07期

【摘要】：为定量分析风险多因素间互相影响,以民用航空安全统计数据为基础,使用N-K模型和耦合度模型分别对航班运行数据进行计算得到耦合值。系统分析在地面和空中时航班运行风险耦合情况。结果表明:空中运行航班,受空管因素影响不大,当机组方面存在风险时,需特别注意天气与机械故障;航班在地面时,避免3个及以上因素同时发生即可有效管控风险。无论在地面或空中,机械维修与天气因素耦合度值较高,两者同时发生将严重威胁运行安全。2种模型所得耦合度数值趋势吻合度较高。
[Abstract]:In order to quantitatively analyze the interaction between the risk factors, the N-K model and the coupling degree model are used to calculate the flight operation data to get the coupling value based on the civil aviation safety statistics.The risk coupling of flight running on the ground and in the air is analyzed systematically.The results show that the flight running in the air is not affected by the air traffic control factors. When there is a risk to the crew, special attention should be paid to the weather and mechanical failure, and when the flight is on the ground, the risk can be effectively controlled by avoiding three or more factors at the same time.Whether on the ground or in the air, the coupling degree of mechanical maintenance and weather factors is high, and the coupling degree of two models will seriously threaten the safety of operation.
【作者单位】： 中国民航大学空管运行安全技术国家重点实验室;
【基金】：民航局科技项目(20150204) 中央高校基本科研业务费资助(3122014D041)
【分类号】：V328
，

本文编号：1706134