基于安全风险的铁路自备车危化品运输路径选择研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 07:17

本文选题：铁路　切入点：危化品　出处：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前,我国经济发展进入"新常态",经济增长速度从高速增长转变为中高速增长,但工业化、信息化、城镇化、市场化进程的逐步推进,对于危险化学品仍有较大的市场需求,我国已成为全球第二大危化品生产和应用国。在这种情况下,危化品物流需求增长迅速,随之而来的是危化品物流安全事故的频发,给国家和社会带来了严重的损失。铁路作为我国交通运输体系的骨干,在危化品运输方面承担着重要的责任。20世纪80年代中期,我国铁路运输长期处于运能紧张状态,许多大型企业纷纷购置自备车以满足自身需求,在这二十多年的时间里,自备车已经发展成为铁路危化品运输的主要运载工具,选择合理的运输路径,最大程度减少运输风险,确保铁路自备车危化品运输安全,是铁路运输部门的重点工作之一。因此,研究铁路自备车危化品运输路径选择问题对于提高铁路危化品运输安全管理水平,提升铁路的经济效益,构建绿色、环保、可持续发展的社会环境有重要意义。本论文在中国铁路总公司相关科研项目的基础上,通过实地调研和总结分析,对铁路自备车危化品运输路径选择问题进行了系统研究,论文主要研究成果如下:(1)在总结我国危化品行业的发展现状的基础上,结合铁路运输实际,阐述了铁路自备车危化品运输的发展状况,归纳了路径选择问题的基本方法,并结合铁路自备车的特点,分析了铁路自备车危化品运输路径选择问题的影响因素及一般流程。(2)研究了危化品运输路径的安全风险度量方法,将安全风险度量分为事故率及事故后果的确定两部分,结合条件概率、二项分布、超几何分布相关理论,确定了铁路自备车危化品运输泄漏事故率的计算方法。从人员安全风险及环境安全风险两方面对铁路自备车危化品运输路径的安全风险进行度量。(3)针对多目标规划问题中不同目标函数之间量纲及数量级不同的情况,使用了改进后的线性加权法进行处理,构建了运输广义费用最小及人员安全风险最小的铁路自备车危化品运输路径选择双目标规划模型。(4)以沈阳铁路局路网为基础,应用本文构建的多目标铁路自备车危化品运输路径选择模型进行液氯产品的路径选择案例分析,使用优化软件GAMS进行模型求解,得到了液氯产品自备车运输路径选择方案,论证了方案的可用性及有效性。最后在铁路自备车危化品运输路径已定的情况下,提出了降低铁路自备车危化品运输安全风险的措施建议。
[Abstract]:At present, the economic development of our country has entered the "new normal", the economic growth rate has changed from the high speed growth to the medium high speed growth, but the industrialization, the informationization, the urbanization, the marketization advancement step by step, still has the big market demand for the dangerous chemicals.China has become the second most dangerous chemicals production and application country in the world.In this case, the demand for dangerous chemicals logistics is growing rapidly, followed by the frequent occurrence of dangerous chemicals logistics accidents, which has brought serious losses to the country and society.As the backbone of China's transportation system, railway plays an important role in the transportation of dangerous chemicals.Many large enterprises have purchased their own vehicles to meet their own needs. In the past 20 years or so, self-owned vehicles have developed into the main means of transport of dangerous chemicals on railways, choosing reasonable transportation routes and minimizing transportation risks.It is one of the key tasks of railway transportation department to ensure the transportation safety of dangerous chemicals.Therefore, it is of great significance to study the choice of transportation route for railway vehicles and dangerous chemicals in order to improve the level of transport safety management of railway dangerous chemicals, enhance the economic benefits of railway, and build a green, environmentally friendly and sustainable social environment.Based on the related scientific research projects of China Railway Corporation, this paper systematically studies the transportation route selection of dangerous chemicals on railway self-owned vehicles through field investigation and summary analysis.The main research results are as follows: (1) on the basis of summarizing the present situation of dangerous chemicals industry in China, combining with the actual situation of railway transportation, this paper expounds the development situation of dangerous chemicals transportation on railway self-contained vehicles, and sums up the basic methods of route selection.Combined with the characteristics of railway self-provided vehicles, this paper analyzes the influencing factors and general flow chart of the transportation route selection of dangerous chemicals for railway self-owned vehicles, and studies the safety risk measurement method of dangerous chemicals transportation routes.According to the theory of conditional probability, binomial distribution and hypergeometric distribution, the safety risk measurement is divided into two parts: accident rate and accident consequence.This paper measures the safety risk of transportation route of dangerous chemicals of railway self-owned vehicles from two aspects of personnel safety risk and environmental safety risk.) aiming at the different dimensions and orders of magnitude of different objective functions in multi-objective programming problem,The improved linear weighting method is used to construct the dual objective programming model of transportation route selection of dangerous chemicals for railway self-owned vehicles, which is based on the network of Shenyang Railway Administration, which has the minimum generalized cost and minimum risk of personnel safety.By using the multi-objective railway vehicle transport route selection model constructed in this paper to analyze the route selection of liquid chlorine products, the optimization software GAMS is used to solve the model, and the transportation route selection scheme of liquid chlorine self-owned vehicles is obtained.The availability and effectiveness of the scheme are demonstrated.Finally, under the condition that the transportation route of dangerous chemicals for railway self-owned vehicles has been determined, the measures to reduce the safety risk of transport of dangerous chemicals on railway self-owned vehicles are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298.3;U294.15

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