浙江省火灾事故时空演变特征、诱发主因与重发热点区域识别研究

发布时间：2018-04-10 03:28

本文选题：火灾　切入点：时空演变　出处：《浙江工业大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以国内外火灾事故发生及其影响因素的先期研究为基础,结合浙江省2000～2010年期间发生火灾的真实案例,采用MAPINFO地理信息系统建立研究区域内火灾案例空间数据库,从省、地级市和县区三个空间尺度分析火灾事故发生的时空演变特征、诱发要因及火灾事故重发热点区域识别等问题,并据此对浙江省火灾防控提出了一些政策建议。本文经过系统分析、比较研究得出的主要结论有：第一,就浙江省总体而言,2000～2010年期间火灾发生起数呈现上升态势,但火灾造成的直接经济损失有逐年下降的走向,可能与各地区消防力量的加强和消防意识的提高有一定的关系；特别是2007年全省火灾发生起数高达5064起,造成直接经济损失高达6764万元,创历史新高,防火防灾形势十分严峻；第二,全省及辖区火灾诱发要因及其排序虽有细微差异,但电气和生产作业诱发火灾发生案例成逐年上升态势,并成火灾诱发的主要因素,生活用火不慎引发的火灾案例时有发生,但总体呈现下降趋势'第三,尝试性地构建了火灾发生指数,用于计算和衡量各县区火灾发生程度的高低,分析结果表明2000年、2005年、2010年三个时间点火灾发生指数均入围前10名的有义乌市、乐清市、温岭市、永康市、绍兴县、瑞安市等县市,成为浙江省火灾事故发生的热点区域；第四,根据年均火灾发生指数将浙江省全部县区划分为火灾频发热点区、火灾稳定区、火灾波动区和火灾低发区四个区域等级；火灾频发热点区均处在社会经济发展水平相对较高和人类活动强度相对较大的县、市、区,说明二者具有一定的相关关系；但但像绍兴的上虞市、宁波的镇海区和杭州的下沙区社会经济发展水平高、人类活动强度大的地区,从历年火灾发生指数分析结果表明均属于火灾低发区域；鉴于火灾发生的影响因素及其影响机理及其复杂,究竟其深层次的要因还有待于进一步的研究。
[Abstract]:Based on the advance study of fire accident and its influencing factors at home and abroad, combined with the real fire cases in Zhejiang Province from 2000 to 2010, the spatial database of fire cases in the study area was established by MAPINFO GIS.Based on the analysis of the space-time evolution characteristics of fire accidents in three spatial scales of prefecture-level cities and counties, the problems such as identifying the regions where the fire accidents are caused and the reheating points are identified, some policy suggestions are put forward for fire prevention and control in Zhejiang Province.Through systematic analysis, the main conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, the number of fires in Zhejiang Province rose during the period of 2000 ~ 2010, but the direct economic losses caused by fire have a decreasing trend year by year.Especially in 2007, the number of fires in the whole province was as high as 5064, resulting in direct economic losses of up to 67.64 million yuan, which reached a new high in history, and the situation of fire prevention and disaster prevention was very severe.Second, although there are slight differences in the cause and ranking of fire induced by electrical and production operations in the province and its jurisdiction, the number of fire cases induced by electrical and production operations has increased year by year and has become the main factor of fire induction.Fire cases caused by accidental fire in daily use occur from time to time, but the overall trend is downward. Third, a fire occurrence index is constructed in an attempt to calculate and measure the level of fire occurrence in various counties and districts.The results show that in 2000, 2005 and 2010, the top 10 fire occurrence indexes were Yiwu, Yueqing, Wenling, Yongkang, Shaoxing, Ruian and other counties and cities, which became the hot spots of fire accidents in Zhejiang Province.Fourthly, according to the average annual fire occurrence index, all counties and regions in Zhejiang Province are divided into four regional grades: fire frequency hot spot area, fire stable area, fire fluctuating area and low fire area.Fire prone hot spots are all located in counties, cities and districts with relatively high levels of social and economic development and relatively high human activity intensity, indicating that the two have a certain correlation; but like Shangyu City in Shaoxing,In the areas with high level of social and economic development and high intensity of human activities in Zhenhai District of Ningbo and Xiasha District of Hangzhou, the results of fire occurrence index analysis over the years show that these areas belong to low fire incidence areas.In view of the influence factors and the mechanism of fire occurrence and its complexity, the deep causes of fire still need to be further studied.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X928.7

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