网络化运营条件下城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价方法研究

发布时间：2018-04-11 14:47

本文选题：城市轨道交通 + 应急指挥　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：目前我国城市轨道交通进入了一个高速发展期,多数城市的轨道交通都由以前的单线运行转换成了多线、多制式运行的网络化运营局面。网络化运营条件下,城市轨道交通网络结构复杂,运营制式多元,发生突发事故后,事故影响面大,后果比较严重,这给应急指挥管理带来很大难度。因此科学合理的应急指挥管理方法,对城市轨道交通预防、减少突发事故,降低突发事故伤害具有重要意义。进行城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价是完善应急指挥管理方法、提高应急指挥管理能力的基础。通过建立精准的评价模型,评估城市轨道交通应急指挥管理能力,发现城市轨道交通应急指挥管理过程中存在的问题,为形成高效的应急指挥管理机制提供理论依据。本文对国内外应急能力评价的现状进行了研究,发现目前国内外的大部分学者对于应急能力评价指标都是通过总结借鉴前人的研究成果或者根据自己的主观想法进行构建的,这样得到的指标体系缺乏说服力,其合理性也有待考证。鉴于此,本文基于事故分析构建城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价指标体系,介绍了城市轨道交通诞生以来的150年间世界各国城市轨道交通系统发生的各种典型突发事故的基本情况,并对事故发生的原因、处置过程进行了深入分析,得到了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理的影响因素,以影响因素为基础初步建立了评价指标体系,得到4个一级指标(分别为人员素质、设施设备、管理机制和社会控制)和30个二级指标。基于事故分析得到的评价指标是全面但粗糙的,为了体现模型的精准性,需要对初步得到的评价指标体系进行约简。粗糙集理论具有这种去除冗余指标,提取核心指标的功能。基于粗糙集的属性约简性,本文建立了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价指标约简模型,基于粗糙集的信息量和属性重要性原理,建立了指标权重确定模型。选取我国城市轨道交通运行年限相对较长的7座城市的城市轨道交通(北京地铁、上海地铁、广州地铁、深圳地铁、香港地铁、重庆轻轨、成都地铁)作为研究对象,通过实地调研及专家咨询等方式给初步建立的评价指标体系进行赋值,建立了城市轨道交通应急指挥管理评价信息系统,结合指标约简模型和权重确定模型,得到了21个最佳约简指标及其综合权重。最后采用线性加权法对各个指标进行加权计算,从而得到各评价对象的综合评价结果。
[Abstract]:At present, urban rail transit in China has entered a period of high speed development. Most of the urban rail transit has been transformed from the former single-line operation into a multi-line, multi-system operation network operation situation.Under the condition of network operation, the network structure of urban rail transit is complex, the operation system is diversified, and after the sudden accident, the influence of the accident is great and the consequence is serious, which brings great difficulty to the emergency command and management.Therefore, scientific and reasonable emergency command and management methods are of great significance to urban rail transit prevention, reduce sudden accidents and reduce accident injury.The evaluation of emergency command and management of urban rail transit is the basis of perfecting the method of emergency command and management and improving the ability of emergency command and management.By establishing an accurate evaluation model to evaluate the ability of emergency command and management of urban rail transit, the problems in the process of emergency command and management of urban rail transit are found, which provides a theoretical basis for the formation of an efficient emergency command and management mechanism.So the index system is not convincing, and its rationality needs to be verified.In view of this, this paper constructs the evaluation index system of emergency command and management of urban rail transit based on accident analysis.This paper introduces the basic situation of various typical sudden accidents in the urban rail transit system of various countries in the world during the 150 years since the birth of urban rail transit, and makes a thorough analysis on the causes of the accidents and the disposal process.The influencing factors of emergency command and management of urban rail transit are obtained. Based on the influencing factors, the evaluation index system is preliminarily established, and four first-grade indexes (personnel quality, facilities and equipment, respectively) are obtained.Management mechanism and social control) and 30 secondary indicators.The evaluation index based on accident analysis is comprehensive but rough. In order to reflect the accuracy of the model, it is necessary to reduce the preliminary evaluation index system.Rough set theory has the function of removing redundant index and extracting core index.Based on the attribute reduction of rough set, this paper establishes the index reduction model of urban rail transit emergency command and management evaluation, and establishes the index weight determination model based on the information quantity and attribute importance principle of rough set.The urban rail transit (Beijing Metro, Shanghai Subway, Guangzhou Metro, Shenzhen Metro, Hong Kong Metro, Chongqing Light Rail Transit, Chengdu Metro) of 7 cities with relatively long operating years of urban rail transit in China is selected as the research object, which includes Beijing Metro, Shanghai Metro, Guangzhou Metro, Shenzhen Metro, Hong Kong Metro, Chongqing Light Rail Transit and Chengdu Metro.Through field investigation and expert consultation, the evaluation index system is assigned, and the evaluation information system of urban rail transit emergency command and management is established, which combines the index reduction model and weight determination model.The 21 best reduction indexes and their comprehensive weights are obtained.Finally, the linear weighting method is used to calculate each index, and the comprehensive evaluation results of each evaluation object are obtained.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U298;U239.5

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