城市轨道交通突发事件管理及人员疏散仿真研究

发布时间：2018-04-21 01:06

本文选题：城市轨道交通突发事件 + SIS-KE演化模型　；参考：《北京交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：城市轨道交通具有准点率高、运量大、安全快捷、绿色环保等优点,在缓解城市交通拥堵方面发挥了巨大的作用。但城市轨道交通也成为恐怖袭击的重要目标,尤其是在国外,近年来城市轨道交通恶性突发事件频发,严重威胁人们的生命财产安全,对我国城市轨道安全问题提出了重要警示。有鉴于此,本文对城市轨道交通突发事件管理及人员疏散仿真进行深入研究,具有重要的理论价值和实际意义。(1)借用知识元(Knowledge Element,KE)和传染病动力学原理构建了城市轨道交通突发事件SIS-KE演化模型。借鉴知识元的思想,建立城市轨道交通系统知识元模型;分析城市轨道交通突发事件演化与SIS模型传染病传播的相似性,基于SIS模型进而建立了包含突发事件的应急有效率α和突发事件的损害率β两类参数的城市轨道交通突发事件SIS-KE演化模型;利用Simulink对不同的α和β值进行模拟运算和比较分析,从而揭示城市轨道交通突发事件演化机理,并对演化模型的有效性进行了实例验证。(2)从应急能力和有效性出发,构建城市轨道交通应急资源网络化布局模型,并进行算例分析。从站点覆盖、救援时间、布局点数量、建设成本四个方面进行目标优化,构建应急资源布局模型;根据自变量和目标函数的特点设计遗传算法进行求解;以北京城市轨道交通为例,运用Matlab对目标函数和遗传算法进行编程,求解城市轨道交通应急资源网络化布局模型,从道路运输和轨道运输两个方面进行了应急资源布局比较研究。(3)针对城市轨道交通恐怖袭击爆炸情景,设计应急疏散方案,利用Anylogic软件搭建仿真系统进行案例分析。在调研车站基本物理属性的基础上,从恐怖袭击的时间、地点、炸药当量三个维度进行情景分析,考虑站台端部和中部发生爆炸两种情景,设计整个地铁车站行人应急疏散方案并使用Anylogic软件进行仿真,为疏散方案的优化提供途径。
[Abstract]:Urban rail transit has the advantages of high punctual rate, large volume of transportation, safe and fast, green environmental protection and so on, which has played a great role in alleviating urban traffic congestion. However, urban rail transit has also become an important target of terrorist attacks, especially in foreign countries. In recent years, malignant emergencies of urban rail transit have frequently occurred, which seriously threaten the safety of people's lives and property. This paper puts forward an important warning to the safety of urban track in our country. In view of this, this paper carries on the thorough research to the urban rail transit emergency management and the personnel evacuation simulation, It has important theoretical and practical significance. (1) the SIS-KE evolution model of urban rail transit emergencies is constructed by using the knowledge element Ke) and the principle of infectious disease dynamics. Based on the idea of knowledge element, the knowledge element model of urban rail transit system is established, and the similarity between the evolution of urban rail transit emergencies and the spread of infectious diseases in SIS model is analyzed. Based on the SIS model, the evolution model of urban rail transit emergency SIS-KE with emergency response rate 伪 and emergency damage rate 尾 is established, and different 伪 and 尾 values are simulated and analyzed by Simulink. In order to reveal the evolution mechanism of urban rail transit emergencies, and to verify the effectiveness of the evolution model, an example is given to verify the effectiveness of the evolution model. Based on the emergency capability and effectiveness, the network layout model of urban rail transit emergency resources is constructed, and an example is analyzed. From four aspects of site coverage, rescue time, number of layout points and construction cost, the emergency resource layout model is constructed, and genetic algorithm is designed to solve the problem according to the characteristics of independent variables and objective functions. Taking Beijing urban rail transit as an example, using Matlab to program the objective function and genetic algorithm, the network layout model of emergency resources of urban rail transit is solved. This paper makes a comparative study on the layout of emergency resources from the two aspects of road transportation and rail transit.) aiming at the scene of terrorist attack and explosion of urban rail transit, the emergency evacuation scheme is designed, and the simulation system is built by using Anylogic software to carry out case analysis. Based on the investigation of the basic physical properties of the station, the scene analysis was carried out from the three dimensions of the time, place and explosive equivalent of the terrorist attack, and two scenarios of explosion occurred at the end of the platform and in the middle of the station were considered. The whole subway station pedestrian emergency evacuation scheme is designed and simulated with Anylogic software, which provides a way to optimize the evacuation scheme.
【学位授予单位】：北京交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298;TP391.9

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