南海航道安全空间综合评价研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 12:55

本文选题：航道安全 + 空间分析　；参考：《南京大学》2014年博士论文

【摘要】：南海是世界上最繁忙的海上运输通道之一,是我国与亚洲其他国家、欧洲、非洲开展海上贸易的必经之道。南海航道关系到我国能源安全,我国进口能源的70%需要通过南海运输。近年来,台风、海啸等恶劣天气频繁发生,海盗和海上恐怖主义活动频繁,域外大国借维护航道安全介入南海争端,使得南海航道面临多方面威胁。南海航道安全各方面威胁都与空间位置有很大关系。从空间角度分析南海航道安全,研究可能对其安全畅通产生影响的自然和社会因素的空间作用范围、方式与程度,提出优化航道安全的措施,可为海洋管理部门提供决策参考,对维护人们生命财产安全、保护海洋环境和保障我国国家核心战略利益具有重要意义。随着地理信息科学的发展,基于遥感、GPS和其他来源的空间数据日益丰富,为航道安全分析与评价提供了数据基础,GIS多指标决策分析技术的发展为开展航道安全空间分析与评价提供了技术支撑。目前,国内外学者对航行安全空间综合评价尚处于初步阶段,在航道安全评价方面研究较少。航道在哪儿?航道安全分布状况如何?如何优化航道安全?已成为开展航道安全评价研究亟待解决的重要技术问题。本文综合利用多源空间数据,解决了航道安全空间综合评价的主要技术难点,准确地提取了主要航道,揭示了地形、水文气象、社会环境的众多因素影响下的航道安全的时空分布特征,并提出了改善航道安全的建议和措施。主要研究内容和结论如下:(1)基于轨迹聚类的航道中心线提取方法研究。航道是舰船航行轨迹形成的在港口之间的带状区域。舰船的轨迹反映了航道的分布特征,针对如何利用舰船数据提取航道的技术难题,论文提出轨迹线生成、轨迹线聚类的处理流程,通过聚类中心线实现航道提取,并结合世界航道图和基于Envsat ASAR提取舰船-密度分析的方法验证提取结果,证明了提取结果的有效性。研究表明,南海主要航道有14条,其中8条通过南沙群岛西面海域,广州-新加坡航道有3条,分别经过西沙群岛西面、中部和东面,东面的广州-新加坡航道与高雄-新加坡航道是南海最主要的航道。(2)航道环境因素危险性定量评价。航道安全与航行环境危险性相关,论文从地形环境、水文气象环境、社会环境三个方面分析了影响航道安全的因素,并应用空间分析手段对影响南海航道安全的重要因素的危险性进行定量评估。研究表明,航行安全受地形因素影响较大的区域分布在岛礁、海岸附近;水文气象方面,秋、冬季航行安全受风浪影响较大,尤其是南海东北部海域和南沙群岛西面海域较为危险,夏、秋季受热带气旋影响,夏季南海北部危险度高,秋季南海东北部危险度高。船舶密度影响区域分布在南海北部沿岸区域,海盗影响区域则位于马六甲海峡附近水域,南沙争端目前对航行安全没有影响。(3)航道安全空间评价模型研究。构建航道安全空间评价模型有助于海事部门掌握航道安全空间分布信息,保障航道安全。论文结合南海区域特点,构建了航道安全空间评价指标体系,提出了考虑决策偏好选择的基于OWA-GIS的航道安全空间评价模型框架,评价了南海海域和南海航道的安全分布,分析了南海的救助可达性分布,提出了改善航道安全的措施。该模型经过南海海损事故数据验证有效。评价结果表明,马六甲海峡附近受海盗影响全年航行较为危险,经过马六甲的航道均受影响;其他区域在秋、冬两季的航行危险性较高,其中新加坡通往高雄、巴士海峡、巴林塘海峡的航道受影响最大,其次为通往广州的三条航道,其他航道受影响较小。结合南海救助可达性,论文建议在黄岩岛、康泰滩、永暑礁、华阳礁和渚碧礁建立海上救助基地,保护我国南海航道安全。论文的主要创新有两点:①提出了一种基于轨迹聚类的航道中心线提取方法。研究利用志愿观测船(VOS)数据生成舰船不同航次的轨迹线,应用缓冲区交集比例度量轨迹线的相似性,进行聚类分析,最后应用三角网方法生成航道中心线。②构建了基于OWA-GIS的南海航道安全空间评价模型。目前的航行安全评价模型往往忽略空间分布信息,且不考虑决策偏好性。研究构建的空间评价模型从空间角度,并考虑了 "少数指标满足"的决策偏好性。
[Abstract]:The South China Sea is one of the busiest maritime transport channels in the world. It is the only way for China to carry out maritime trade with other Asian countries, Europe and Africa. The South China Sea channel is related to China's energy security. The 70% of China's imported energy needs to be transported through the South China Sea. In recent years, typhoons and howls often occur, pirates and maritime terrorists Many foreign countries are involved in the South China Sea dispute through the maintenance of waterway security, which makes the South China Sea channel face many threats. The threats to the security of the South China Sea channel are closely related to the space position. From the spatial perspective, the security of the South China Sea channel is analyzed and the spatial role model of the natural and social factors that may affect the safety and unobstructed production of the South China Sea is studied. The measures to optimize the safety of the channel can provide a reference for the marine management department, and it is of great significance for the maintenance of people's life and property, the protection of the marine environment and the protection of the national core strategic interests of our country. With the development of Geographic Information Science, the spatial data of GPS and other sources are increasingly rich. It provides a data basis for the analysis and evaluation of channel safety. The development of GIS multi index decision analysis technology provides technical support for the safety space analysis and evaluation of navigation channel. At present, the domestic and foreign scholars are still at the initial stage of the comprehensive evaluation of navigation safety space, and there are few studies on the safety assessment of the navigation channel. How to optimize the whole distribution of the channel? How to optimize the channel safety has become an important technical problem to be solved urgently. In this paper, using multi source spatial data, the main technical difficulties of the comprehensive evaluation of the safety space of the channel are solved, the main navigation channels are extracted accurately, and many of the terrain, hydrometeorology and social environment are revealed. The spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of channel security under the influence of factors are proposed and the suggestions and measures to improve the safety of the channel are proposed. The main contents and conclusions are as follows: (1) the study of the route center line extraction based on the trajectory clustering. The channel is a band area between the ports formed by the ship navigation track. The trajectory of the ship reflects the distribution of the channel. Characteristics, in view of the technical problems of how to use ship data to extract the channel, the paper presents the path line generation, the processing flow of the path line clustering, and the extraction of the channel through the cluster center line, and combines the world waterway map and the method of Envsat ASAR to extract the ship density analysis method, which proves the validity of the extraction results. There are 14 main waterways in the South China Sea, of which 8 are through the west of Spratly Islands and 3 in the Guangzhou Singapore waterway. Through Paracel Islands West, the middle and East, the Guangzhou Singapore waterway and the Kaohsiung Singapore channel are the most important channel in the South China Sea. (2) the safety of the channel environment and the safety of the channel. The hazard of navigation is analyzed from three aspects of terrain environment, hydrometeorology environment and social environment, and the risk of the important factors affecting the safety of the South China Sea channel is quantitatively evaluated by means of spatial analysis. The study shows that the safety of navigation is affected by the terrain factors. On the islands and reefs, near the coast, in the area of hydrometeorology, in autumn and in winter, the safety of navigation is greatly affected by the wind and waves, especially in the northeast of the South China Sea and the western area of the Spratly Islands. In summer and autumn, it is affected by the tropical cyclone. In summer, the danger is high in the north of the South China Sea, and the danger is high in the northeast of the South China Sea in autumn. The area of the ship density is distributed in the north of the South China Sea. The coastal area, the pirate affected area is located in the waters near the Malacca Strait, and the Nansha dispute has no influence on the safety of navigation. (3) the study of the safety space evaluation model of the channel. The construction of the safety space evaluation model of the channel is helpful for the maritime department to grasp the information of the space distribution of the navigation channel and the safety of the channel. The evaluation index system of waterway safety space is constructed, and a OWA-GIS based space evaluation model framework based on the choice of decision preference is proposed. The safety distribution of the sea area and the South China Sea channel is evaluated, the accessibility distribution of the South China Sea is analyzed, and the measures to improve the safety of the navigation channel are put forward. The results show that the evaluation results show that the pirates near the Malacca Straits are more dangerous to navigate the whole year and are affected by the channel of Malacca; the other regions have high navigation risk in the autumn and two seasons, among which Singapore leads to Kaohsiung, the bus channel, the Bahrain Tong channel and the next to Guangzhou, three. The paper proposes to establish maritime rescue base in Huangyan, Kangtai beach, Yong Shu reef, Huayang reef and Zhu Bi reef in Huangyan Island, Kangtai beach, Huayang reef and Zhu Bi reef. The main innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) a method of extracting the center line of the channel based on the trajectory clustering is proposed. The VOS data generates the trajectories of different voyages, uses the similarity of the proportions of the buffer area to measure the trajectory line, and carries out clustering analysis. Finally, the channel center line is generated by the triangulation method. Secondly, a security space evaluation model of the South China Sea channel based on OWA-GIS is constructed. The current navigation safety evaluation model often ignores the empty space. The distribution of information is distributed without considering the preference of decision making. The spatial evaluation model is studied from the spatial perspective, and the decision preference of "minority index satisfaction" is considered.

【学位授予单位】：南京大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U698

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