基于IOSM的苏州市自然灾害损失风险分析

发布时间：2018-04-29 17:53

本文选题：灾害风险分析 + 灾害损失　；参考：《地理与地理信息科学》2016年04期

【摘要】：基于灾害损失历史统计数据,借助于内外集模型(IOSM)进行自然灾害风险分析。首先确定观测区间并检验观测样本的分布形式,基于此确定其可能性-概率分布矩阵PPD,然后计算灾害损失的风险期望值,并基于ArcGIS制作不同灾害情境下各灾害损失指标的风险分布图。针对苏州市主要自然灾害类型,选取受灾人口、倒塌房屋、农作物受灾面积和直接经济损失作为灾害损失指标进行灾害风险分析,得到以下主要结论:1)不同灾害类型下各灾害损失指标的风险水平和复现期不同,其中台风导致200万人口、12 500hm2农作物受灾和42.5万间房屋倒塌的复现期均为7.2~7.5a。2)不同类型灾害的损失特征和程度不同,台风对人口、农作物和房屋的影响最大;洪涝灾害的直接经济损失最大,说明洪涝灾害后果最严重;风雹对各项指标的影响都比较小,与其影响区域小、持续时间短等局部灾害特征有关。3)各类型灾害损失风险呈现显著的空间差异特征,对台风导致的灾害损失风险分析表明,吴中区、吴江市、常熟市和张家港市的灾害风险最大;常熟市和吴中区台风导致受灾人口和农作物减产的风险最大,市区周围台风导致受灾人口风险最小;常熟市台风导致房屋倒塌的风险最大。4)灾害发生概率及其可能性共同决定灾害损失风险。研究成果对民政部门制订、调整、规划救灾对策以及民生保险预算具有重要意义。
[Abstract]:Based on the historical statistical data of disaster loss, natural disaster risk analysis is carried out with the help of internal and external collection model (IOSM). First, the observation interval is determined and the distribution form of the observation sample is tested. Based on this, the probability distribution matrix PPDs are determined, and then the risk expectation value of the disaster loss is calculated. And based on ArcGIS, the risk distribution map of each disaster loss index under different disaster situation is made. According to the main types of natural disasters in Suzhou, disaster risk analysis is carried out by selecting affected population, collapsed houses, affected areas of crops and direct economic losses as disaster loss indicators. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) the risk level and recurrence period of each disaster loss index under different disaster types are different. Among them, the damage characteristics and degrees of different types of disasters were different in the recurrence period of 2 million people and 12 500hm2 crops and 425000 houses collapsing. The typhoon had the greatest impact on the population, crops and houses. The direct economic losses of flood and waterlogging disasters are the largest, which shows that the flood and waterlogging disasters have the most serious consequences, and the wind and hail have less impact on each index than in the affected areas. The characteristics of local disasters of short duration are related to. 3) each type of disaster loss risk shows significant spatial difference. The analysis of disaster loss risk caused by typhoon shows that Wuzhong District, Wujiang City, Changshu City and Zhangjiagang City have the greatest disaster risk. Changshu City and Wuzhong District caused the greatest risk of population and crop reduction caused by typhoons, and the least risk caused by typhoons around the urban area. In Changshu City, the risk of building collapse caused by typhoon is the biggest. 4) the probability and possibility of disaster jointly determine the risk of disaster loss. The research results are of great significance for civil affairs departments to formulate, adjust, plan disaster relief countermeasures and budget for people's livelihood insurance.
【作者单位】：苏州科技大学;苏州市民政局;
【基金】：江苏省政府留学基金项目(JS-2012-275) 住房与城乡建设部科技项目(2013-R2-9)
【分类号】：X43

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