地铁车站突发性大客流应急疏散研究

发布时间：2018-04-30 01:24

本文选题：地铁车站 + 突发客流　；参考：《兰州交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在突发事件发生时,地铁车站内客流疏散是否及时直接关乎聚集在站厅内人员的生命安全能否得到保障;如何有效地缓解突发客流造成的影响,防止因突发客流造成事故的发生,已成为公共安全领域研究的热点和重点。客流的紧急疏散就是在发生各种突发事件时,将站内所有人员在最短的时间内安全地疏散到安全区域。为了减少突发状况下的事故的发生以及确保地铁车站的正常运营和乘客的安全,有必要制定有效的应急客流疏散方案,以便及时地把乘客疏散到安全区域。本文首先介绍了地铁车站突发大客流的相关理论概念,分析了突发性大客流一般是由突发事件导致的,而突发事件带来的大客流对地铁车站的应急能力有着极大的考验,那么有必要清楚地掌握突发性大客流具有的一些特点,然后根据突发大客流产生的特点及突发情况下行人疏散的行为的进行研究,并对突发事件下行人群体疏散的影响因素做了简要的分析,主要包括人的主观偏好、行人的心理状态、和恐慌情绪等主观因素;以及出口的数量、距离出口的距离、行人的拥挤程度等客观因素。然后对于多出口的地铁车站人群紧急疏散研究时,本文主要选取距离、出口宽度、出口拥挤程度为行人出口选择的影响因素,并建立行人出口选择综合效用模型,找出疏散的备选出口;鉴于在紧急疏散时,疏散的行人个体只能在有限理性的条件下,依据不完全的出口路径信息,选择适合自己的逃生路径。因此,本文模拟现实中的疏散个体在基于有限理性和获取有限信息的情况下对于出口的选择行为和疏散的过程,考虑到疏散的个体会观察视野周围内其他疏散人员的策略选择,决定下一阶段的策略,而每个个体的疏散策略选择都是基于最优反应策略,利用演化博弈思想来模拟多出口的选择问题。在客流疏散的运动过程中,行人个体受到力的作用而运动,本文通过引入社会力模型进行模拟,但是目前对于社会力模型的研究没有考虑紧急疏散时个体对待风险的主观偏好性在期望速度上所起的作用,所以本文在已有的社会力模型上进行改进,在经典社会力的基础上加入风险偏好因子,改进了行人疏散时的期望速度,使得改进后的模型更加符合群体疏散时行人运动的特性。最后本文将出口选择机制和群体疏散过程同步进行研究,通过建立最优出口选择机制与行人运动过程的综合模型,并在AnyLogic仿真平台进行模拟。有效地实现了地铁车站行人运动过程的模拟以及疏散个体对于多出口选择的演化博弈过程,为制定突发状况下行人疏散应急预案提供了建议。
[Abstract]:When the emergency occurs, whether the subway station passenger flow evacuation is timely or not is directly related to the safety of the people gathered in the station hall, how to effectively mitigate the impact caused by the sudden passenger flow, Prevention of accidents caused by sudden passenger flow has become a hot spot and focus in the field of public safety. The emergency evacuation of passenger flow is to safely evacuate all personnel in the station to the safe area in the shortest time. In order to reduce the occurrence of accidents and ensure the normal operation of subway stations and the safety of passengers, it is necessary to formulate an effective emergency passenger evacuation scheme in order to evacuate passengers to the safe area in time. This paper first introduces the related theoretical concepts of sudden passenger flow in subway station, and analyzes that the sudden large passenger flow is generally caused by unexpected events, and that the large passenger flow caused by unexpected events has a great test on the emergency capacity of subway station. Then it is necessary to have a clear understanding of some characteristics of sudden large passenger flows, and then according to the characteristics of sudden large passenger flows and the behavior of pedestrian evacuation in sudden situations, It also makes a brief analysis of the factors influencing the evacuation of people in the downlink of emergencies, including subjective preferences of people, the psychological state of pedestrians, and panic feelings, as well as the number of exits and the distance from the exits. Objective factors such as pedestrian congestion. Then for the multi-exit subway station crowd emergency evacuation research, this article mainly selects the distance, the exit width, the exit congestion degree as the pedestrian exit choice influence factor, and establishes the pedestrian exit choice comprehensive utility model. In view of the emergency evacuation, the individual evacuees can only choose their own escape path according to incomplete exit path information under the condition of limited rationality. Therefore, this paper simulates the exit selection behavior and evacuation process of the evacuees based on limited rationality and limited information in reality, considering that the evacuated individuals will observe the strategy choices of other evacuees around the field of vision. Each individual's evacuation strategy is based on the optimal response strategy and the evolutionary game theory is used to simulate the multi-exit selection problem. In the movement of passenger evacuation, the pedestrian individual is moved by force. In this paper, the social force model is introduced to simulate the movement. However, the current research on social force model does not consider the role of individual subjective preference for risk in emergency evacuation in the expected speed, so this paper improves the existing social force model. Based on the classical social force, risk preference factor is added to improve the expected speed of pedestrian evacuation, which makes the improved model more consistent with the characteristics of pedestrian movement during mass evacuation. Finally, this paper studies the exit selection mechanism and the evacuation process synchronously, establishes the integrated model of the optimal exit selection mechanism and the pedestrian movement process, and simulates in the AnyLogic simulation platform. The simulation of pedestrian movement process of subway station and the evolutionary game process of evacuation individual for multi-exit selection are realized effectively, which provides suggestions for the formulation of emergency plan for pedestrian evacuation in sudden situation.
【学位授予单位】：兰州交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298

【参考文献】