基于尺度效应的过程安全事故概率估计

发布时间：2018-05-03 07:43

  本文选题：多尺度 + 过程系统　； 参考：《化工学报》2017年12期

【摘要】：为提高过程安全事故概率估计方法的适用性,需在基本事件阶段考虑工艺偏差的传播过程。提出基于尺度效应的过程安全事故概率估计方法,从工艺偏差角度入手,建立了新的基本事件求解模型。引入了多尺度思想,在大尺度上,考虑人因失误对工艺偏差的影响,修正基本事件概率。选用模糊Petri网模型进行事故概率估计。最后通过冲塔事故案例分析验证模型,结果表明:人的参与对工艺偏差概率具有较大影响,所提方法比较符合实际工况,更适用于过程安全。由于概率估计是基于统计的数据求取偏差概率,避免了直接对计算参数进行设定的主观性。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the applicability of the probabilistic estimation method for process safety accidents, the propagation process of process deviation should be considered in the basic event stage. A process safety accident probability estimation method based on scale effect is proposed, and a new basic event solving model is established from the point of view of process deviation. The multi-scale idea is introduced to modify the probability of basic events in large scale considering the influence of human error on process deviation. Fuzzy Petri net model is used to estimate the probability of accident. Finally, the model is verified by case analysis of tower punching accident. The results show that the participation of human beings has a great influence on the probability of process deviation, and the proposed method is more suitable for process safety. Because the probability estimation is based on the statistical data to obtain the deviation probability, the subjectivity of directly setting the calculation parameters is avoided.
【作者单位】： 中国石油大学(北京)油气资源与工程国家重点实验室机械与储运工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(51574263) 中国石油大学(北京)科研基金资助项目(2462015YQ0403);中国石油大学(北京)青年创新团队C计划项目(C201602)~~
【分类号】：TQ086
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本文编号：1837616