基于系统理论事故模型与过程的危险性分析方法

发布时间：2018-05-06 12:04

本文选题：危险性分析方法 + 涌现　；参考：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年11期

【摘要】：传统危险性分析方法将事故视为开始事件诱发的一连串事件所造成的不幸后果,适于处理相对简单或由物理组件构成的系统,但无法胜任较为复杂的社会技术系统,有必要研究和探索推广性更好、更为有效的系统安全分析手段。系统理论事故模型与过程(STAMP)将安全视为系统组件间交互的一种涌现特性,并认为事故起因除了组件失效,组件间交互失常而违背安全约束也是重要诱因。主张在系统开发、设计和运行中通过加强控制和强化有关安全约束来预防事故。基于此,先引入了STAMP的基本概念,并介绍了其分析步骤,然后,以贴近真实的导弹拦截系统危险性分析案例,阐述了基于STAMP的分析过程。该分析方法可为开发较高安全性水平的社会技术系统提供技术支持。
[Abstract]:The traditional method of risk analysis regards accidents as unfortunate consequences of a series of events induced by the initial events, and are suitable for dealing with relatively simple or physical components of systems, but not competent for more complex socio-technical systems. It is necessary to study and explore more effective system safety analysis methods with better generalization. The system theory accident model and process (Stamp) regard security as an emerging characteristic of the interaction between system components, and consider that in addition to the failure of components, the failure of interaction among components and the violation of security constraints are also important inducements. In the course of system development, design and operation, it is advocated to prevent accidents by strengthening control and strengthening relevant safety constraints. Based on this, the basic concept of STAMP is introduced, and its analysis steps are introduced. Then, the analysis process based on STAMP is expounded by taking the case of risk analysis of missile interception system close to reality. This analysis method can provide technical support for the development of high security social technology system.
【作者单位】：西京学院;空军工程大学空管领航学院;
【分类号】：X928

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