基于GIS路径选择的铁路突发事件应急资源调度优化研究

发布时间：2018-05-07 04:09

本文选题：铁路突发事件 + 应急资源　；参考：《华东交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路是国家的重要基础设施,在综合大交通新格局中处于核心地位。近年来,我国铁路迅速发展,路网规模不断扩大、行车速度显著提高、运输能力明显增强。一旦发生突发事件,所造成的人员伤亡、经济损失和社会影响将会更加巨大,这对铁路突发事件的应急管理、应急处置能力提出了更高的要求。突发事件发生后,如何借助科学的理论和先进的技术方法,实现应急救援资源需求的合理预测,救援调度路径的快速求解与可视化呈现,最优应急资源调配方案的求解,保证应急决策者能够快速、及时、准确地实施应急资源的调配,提升应急资源的救援效率,确保铁路运输的尽早开通,已经成为迫切需要研究和解决的问题。本文基于案例推理和地理信息系统(GIS)理论,对铁路突发事件事故点应急资源需求预测、救援路径选择、应急资源调配优化等问题进行了研究。首先,阐述了铁路突发事件的特点、诱因、分类分级、救援流程,以及铁路应急资源的特点、分类等,在此基础上分析铁路突发事件的案例属性,将案例推理应用到铁路应急资源需求预测中。针对案例特征属性缺失的情况,采用结构相似度的方法,构建了基于结构相似度的资源需求预测模型,减小了因属性缺失所导致的预测不准的情况,求得最相似的源案例,进而实现事故点应急救援资源需求种类及数量的准确预测。其次将GIS技术运用到铁路应急救援的路径选择中。介绍了GIS中网络数据集的基本概念及其构建的方法策略,运用ArcGIS软件创建了路网交通网络数据集,实现最短路径、事故点最近服务设施、各救援点服务区域的快速求解及其可视化呈现,解决了应急资源调度研究中直接给出应急资源调配时间,而未考虑救援路径选择及调配时间计算的问题,最后建立了以应急资源调配开始时间最早为目标的单目标模型,以及以应急资源调配开始时间最早和应急出救点最少为目标的双目标模型,运用分层序列法对模型进行了求解。并以南昌铁路局为例进行了实证分析,验证模型的有效性及方法的可行性。研究成果丰富和完善了铁路应急救援管理理论,实现了最短救援路径的快速求解,以及事故点、救援基地、站点、线路、救援路径等信息可视化呈现,为铁路应急救援管理工作提供了理论依据和辅助决策支持。
[Abstract]:Railway is an important infrastructure of the country, in the new pattern of comprehensive transportation in the core position. In recent years, China's railways have developed rapidly, the scale of the network has been continuously expanded, the speed of driving has been improved significantly, and the capacity of transportation has been obviously enhanced. Once a sudden event occurs, the casualties, economic losses and social impact will be greater, which puts forward higher requirements for the emergency management and emergency handling capacity of railway emergencies. After the emergency happens, how to use scientific theory and advanced technical method to realize the reasonable prediction of emergency rescue resource demand, the quick solution and visualization of rescue dispatch path, and the solution of optimal emergency resource allocation scheme. To ensure the emergency decision makers can quickly, timely and accurately implement the allocation of emergency resources, improve the rescue efficiency of emergency resources, ensure the opening of railway transportation as soon as possible, has become an urgent need to study and solve the problem. Based on case-based reasoning and GIS theory, this paper studies the problems of emergency resource demand prediction, rescue path selection, emergency resource allocation optimization and so on. First of all, the characteristics, inducement, classification, rescue flow, characteristics and classification of railway emergency resources are expounded. On this basis, the case attributes of railway emergencies are analyzed. Case-based reasoning (CBR) is applied to the prediction of railway emergency resource demand. In view of the absence of feature attributes, a resource requirement prediction model based on structural similarity is constructed by using the structural similarity method, which reduces the uncertainty caused by the absence of attributes and obtains the most similar source cases. Furthermore, the types and quantity of emergency rescue resources are predicted accurately. Secondly, the GIS technology is applied to the path selection of railway emergency rescue. This paper introduces the basic concept of network data set in GIS and its construction method and strategy, and creates the network traffic network data set by using ArcGIS software to realize the shortest path and the nearest service facility of accident point. The rapid solution and visualization of the service area of each rescue point solves the problem that the emergency resource allocation time is directly given in the research of emergency resource scheduling, without considering the choice of rescue path and the calculation of allocation time. Finally, a single objective model with the earliest start time of emergency resource allocation, and a dual objective model with the earliest start time of emergency resource allocation and the least emergency rescue point are established. The model is solved by hierarchical sequence method. Taking Nanchang Railway Bureau as an example, the validity of the model and the feasibility of the method are verified. The research results enrich and perfect the theory of railway emergency rescue management, realize the quick solution of the shortest rescue path, and visualize the information of accident point, rescue base, station, line, rescue path, etc. It provides theoretical basis and auxiliary decision support for railway emergency rescue management.
【学位授予单位】：华东交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U298

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