基于证据理论的船舶应急脆弱性评估

发布时间：2018-05-10 18:05

本文选题：脆弱性 + 船舶应急　；参考：《中国航海》2016年02期

【摘要】：为解决船舶应急能力脆弱性的定量评估问题,建立基于证据理论的船舶应急脆弱性评估模型。该模型包括:建立船舶应急脆弱性评估指标体系,该体系考虑指标的完备性和可量化性,为模型的计算奠定基础;选取证据理论作为模型的评估方法,最终建立具体的船舶应急脆弱性评估模型;进行应急子系统的二次评估,进一步对子系统的敏感性和暴露性进行计算,并定量评估每个指标的脆弱度。对该模型进行实例验证,结果表明:所提出的基于改进证据理论的船舶应急脆弱性评估模型具有较高的科学性和实用性,可在同类问题中加以应用。
[Abstract]:In order to solve the problem of quantitative assessment of ship emergency vulnerability, a ship emergency vulnerability assessment model based on evidence theory was established. The model includes: establishing the evaluation index system of ship emergency vulnerability, considering the completeness and quantification of the index, laying the foundation for the calculation of the model, selecting the evidence theory as the evaluation method of the model, Finally, a specific ship emergency vulnerability assessment model is established, and the secondary assessment of the emergency subsystem is carried out, and the sensitivity and exposure of the subsystem are further calculated, and the vulnerability of each index is evaluated quantitatively. The results show that the proposed ship emergency vulnerability assessment model based on improved evidence theory is more scientific and practical, and can be applied in the similar problems.
【作者单位】：上海海事大学商船学院;上海海事局;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(51279099) 交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2013329810300) 上海市科学技术委员会基金(12ZR1412500) 上海市教委科研创新基金资助重点项目(13ZZ124) 上海市教育委员会和上海市教育发展基金会“曙光计划”基金(12SG40)
【分类号】：U698

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