飞机复飞过程风险的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-05-12 07:03

本文选题：复飞 + 风险　；参考：《中国民航大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：为了减少复飞风险、提高复飞的安全性,本研究将对民航飞机复飞过程风险的影响因素进行更加全面系统地研究分析。本研究收集了2007年至2015年官方发布完整调查报告的35起复飞事故,并采用粗糙集理论和HTA-HET理论对飞机复飞风险的影响因素进行研究。在复飞风险影响因素的分类方面,将复飞过程进行拆分并结合SHEL模型和Reason模型对复飞风险的原因进行了具体分析,研究了复飞事故的形成机理,将导致复飞风险的影响因素按机组、管制、天气、机械、航空公司和航空局六大方面进行了归纳。根据复飞风险影响因素的分类结果建立复飞风险的影响因素评价指标体系,统计各项指标的数据并利用粗糙集理论对复飞风险的影响因素进行评价分析,计算各项指标的重要性。结果表明:机组因素是对复飞风险影响最大的因素;航空公司因素对复飞风险的影响次之;天气因素、机械因素和管制因素也对复飞风险有所影响。论文还利用HTA与HET相结合的方法对导致复飞风险的飞行员差错进行了对比分析,从复飞事故的调查报告中统计飞行员差错的客观数据,得到飞行员差错的客观分析结果,最后与Wen-Chin Li利用相同理论得到的飞行员差错的主观分析结果进行对比,结果表明:两种分析结果所得到的飞行员差错及其差错类型/模式都有所区别。基于上述分析,根据复飞风险影响因素的评价分析结果和对比分析结果,从各个方面提出复飞风险的预防措施;根据复飞事故报告的安全建议提出针对复飞程序、航空器运营人方面的建议措施。
[Abstract]:In order to reduce the risk of overtaking and improve the safety of overflight, this study will make a more comprehensive and systematic study and analysis on the factors affecting the risk of overtaking of civil aviation aircraft. This study collected 35 complete investigation reports from 2007 to 2015, and used rough set theory and HTA-HET theory to study the influencing factors of aircraft overflight risk. In the classification of factors affecting overflying risk, the overflight process is separated and the causes of overflying risk are analyzed by combining SHEL model and Reason model, and the formation mechanism of overflight accident is studied. The factors affecting the risk of overflight are summarized in terms of crew, control, weather, machinery, airline and aviation administration. According to the classification results of overflight risk factors, the evaluation index system of overflight risk factors is established, and the data of each index are counted, and the influencing factors of overflight risk are evaluated and analyzed by rough set theory. Calculate the importance of the indicators. The results show that the aircrew factor is the most important factor, the airline factor has the second influence on the overflight risk, and the weather factor, mechanical factor and control factor also affect the overflight risk. The paper also uses the method of HTA and HET to compare and analyze the pilots' errors which lead to the risk of overflight. The objective data of the pilots' errors are counted from the investigation report of the overflight accidents, and the objective analysis results of the pilots' errors are obtained. Finally, compared with the subjective analysis results of pilots' errors obtained by Wen-Chin Li using the same theory, the results show that the pilots' errors and their error types / patterns are different between the two kinds of analysis results. Based on the above analysis, according to the evaluation, analysis and comparative analysis of the factors affecting overflight risk, the preventive measures of overflight risk are put forward from all aspects, and the procedures for overflying are put forward according to the safety recommendations of the overflight accident report. Recommended measures for aircraft operators.
【学位授予单位】：中国民航大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：V328

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