高危社会技术系统风险指数模型及应用方法研究

发布时间：2018-05-14 20:02

本文选题：高危社会技术系统 + 风险评价　；参考：《中国地质大学（北京）》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：高危社会技术系统广泛的分布在国民生产各个行业以及各个环节，对国民经济建设和发展发挥着不可取代的重大作用。这些高危社会技术系统造成的安全生产事故大多涉及到系统外部环境，不仅损害系统内人员生命安全和财产利益，而且严重危害系统外部人员生命财产安全。高危社会技术系统风险指数的研究就是为了提高其风险评价的科学性和准确性，最大限度的减少事故发生所造成的人员伤亡、经济损失、环境破坏及社会影响等。本文根据高危社会技术系统的风险特点，提出了一套完整的高危社会技术系统风险指数模型，以及以风险指数为支撑的风险可接受标准的确定方法，为高危社会技术系统的风险评价提供了一种更加科学的方法。本文主要形成了以下的研究成果：（1）分析了高危社会技术系统的风险特性，提出了其风险定量评价的要求和目的，并将经济指数与风险指数进行类比，分析了应用指数理论设计风险指数的优势及可行性。（2）提出了高危社会技术系统综合风险指数数学模型以及死亡风险指数、人身损害风险指数、经济损失风险指数、环境与社会影响风险指数的数学模型。（3）提出了高危社会技术系统各项风险可接受标准的确定方法，即F-I曲线法。（4）提出了风险指数的横比指数和环比指数；设计了风险指数的扩展指数模型，提出了风险事故发生阶段、发生类别和事故级别等适用高危社会技术系统风险评价的多维度风险指数应用模型。（5）进行了指数模型和可接受标准确定方法的应用研究，探讨了高危社会技术系统风险控制的策略。（6）以锅炉和电梯两类系统为例，进行了实证分析，证明风险指数模型及可接受标准的确定方法符合实际情况，，具有科学性和实用性。
[Abstract]:High-risk social technology system is widely distributed in various industries and links of national production, which plays an irreplaceable role in the construction and development of national economy. Most of the safety accidents caused by these high risk social and technical systems involve the external environment of the system, which not only damages the life safety and property interests of the personnel in the system, but also seriously endangers the safety of the life and property of the external personnel of the system. The study of risk index of high risk social technology system is to improve the scientific and accuracy of risk assessment and to minimize casualties, economic losses, environmental damage and social impact caused by accidents. According to the risk characteristics of high risk social technology system, this paper puts forward a complete risk index model of high risk social technology system and a method to determine the acceptable risk standard supported by risk index. It provides a more scientific method for the risk evaluation of high-risk social technology system. This paper mainly formed the following research results: This paper analyzes the risk characteristics of high risk social technology system, puts forward the requirement and purpose of risk quantitative evaluation, compares economic index with risk index, and analyzes the advantages and feasibility of applying index theory to design risk index. 2) the mathematical model of comprehensive risk index of high risk social technology system and the mathematical model of death risk index, personal injury risk index, economic loss risk index and environment and social impact risk index are put forward. 3) the F-I curve method is proposed to determine the acceptable risk criteria of high risk socio-technical systems. (4) the horizontal ratio index and the ring index of the risk index are put forward, the extended exponential model of the risk index is designed, and the stage of the occurrence of the risk accident is proposed. The risk index application model of high risk socio-technical system such as occurrence category and accident level is applied. In this paper, the index model and the method of determining acceptable standard are studied, and the strategies of risk control in high risk social technology system are discussed. Taking boiler and elevator as an example, the paper makes an empirical analysis, and proves that the risk index model and the method of determining acceptable standard are in line with the actual situation, scientific and practical.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学（北京）
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X913

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