基于相对差异函数的航道通航安全评价研究

发布时间：2018-05-15 19:46

本文选题：航道 + 相对差异函数　；参考：《宁波大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济的迅速发展,使得国民经济有着明显的上升趋势,也带动了船舶运输行业的发展,经济促进船舶运输行业的发展效果愈发显著和突出,造船工业和技术的飞速发展,造就了近几年船舶的数量急剧增加,并且载重吨位也在不断变大,中国港口的吞吐量也在呈现井喷式的扩大。近年来,许多港口正日渐扩大其建设规模,新建码头的数量、港口的泊位数以及航行船舶数都在上涨,进出港口的船舶数也与日俱增,港口航道也由原来的自然港延伸到人工深水港,港口水域的通航也日趋繁忙,港口水域的航行安全面临的考验也就日趋严峻。本文以虾峙门航道通航环境为研究对象,采用相对差异函数方法作为数学工具对其对通航安全的影响开展评价工作,具体研究方法如下所述:在分析水域通航环境因素的基础上,综合其它学者的研究结论确定了评价指标体系并建立多层的评价层次结构;应用层次分析的方法,采用数据分析和专家经验调查相结合,确定了各评价层次指标因素集的权重集;根据国内外有关各评价指标因素对通航安全影响的研究成果,以及专家访谈和有关调查统计数据设定了各评价指标因素的危险度评价标准;在此评价标准基础上研究确定了各评价指标因素的危险度评价标准隶属度子集表,应用可变模糊集理论中的相对差异函数方法建立起模糊评价模型。将由相对差异函数法得到的结果与模糊灰关联评价法、模糊综合评价法的评价结果进行对比分析可以看出,三者的级别特征值相差不大,这证明了变权和相对差异函数综合评价法具有良好的准确性及客观性。相对差异函数较好的解决了指标区间选值的问题。通过相对差异函数综合评价法得到的级别特征值高于其他两种评价方法得到的级别特征值,表明该方法对航道通航的安全性要求更为严格。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of China's economy, the national economy has a obvious rising trend and the development of the shipping industry. The economic promotion of the shipbuilding industry is becoming more and more significant and prominent. The rapid development of shipbuilding industry and technology has created a sharp increase in the number of ships in recent years, and the load tonnage is also not. In recent years, many ports are expanding their construction scale, the number of new wharves, the number of ports and the number of navigation ships are rising, the number of ships entering and leaving the port is increasing, and the port navigation channel extends from the original natural port to the artificial deepwater port. The navigation of the waters is increasingly busy, and the test of navigation safety in the port waters is becoming more and more severe. This paper takes the navigation environment of the shrimp navigation channel as the research object, and uses the relative differential function method as a mathematical tool to evaluate its influence on the navigation safety. The concrete research methods are as follows: in the analysis of the navigable environment of the waters On the basis of the factors, the evaluation index system and the multi-level evaluation hierarchy are established by combining the research conclusions of other scholars. The weight set of each evaluation level index set is determined by the method of analytic hierarchy process and the combination of data analysis and expert experience investigation. The full impact research results, expert interviews and relevant survey statistics set the risk evaluation criteria for each evaluation index factor. Based on the evaluation criteria, the subsets of the standard membership degree of the risk assessment criteria for each evaluation index are determined, and the relative difference function method in the variable fuzzy set theory is used to establish the criteria. The fuzzy evaluation model. By comparing the results obtained by the relative difference function method with the fuzzy grey relational evaluation method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, it can be seen that the difference of the three level characteristic values is small, which proves that the comprehensive evaluation method of the variable weight and the relative difference function has good accuracy and objectivity. The value of the level characteristic value obtained by the relative difference function comprehensive evaluation method is higher than that of the other two evaluation methods, which shows that the method is more strict on the navigation safety of the channel.

【学位授予单位】：宁波大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698

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