灰色灾变与回归分析法的航空装备不安全事件预测

发布时间：2018-05-16 16:25

本文选题：灰色灾变模型 + 回归分析模型　；参考：《火力与指挥控制》2016年11期

【摘要】：为提高航空装备不安全事件的预测水平,减少事故造成的人员和财产损失,将灰色灾变与回归分析方法有机结合,提出一种航空装备不安全事件的组合预测方法。该方法先从数据中找出灾变点(灾变发生的日期),通过建立这些灾变点的灰色灾变模型预测未来灾变点,再对这些灾变点上的值构建灰色预测模型,计算出未来灾变点的灾变值;而对于非灾变点,可建立合适的回归分析模型进行预测。为验证其可行性,在某飞行训练基地的航空装备不安全事件频数的数据基础上,建立了灰色灾变回归组合预测模型,结果表明,模型对2001年~2004年预测的相对误差平均控制在6.87%以内,所建立的组合模型,能够比较客观地反映航空装备安全的未来实际状况。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the prediction level of aviation equipment unsafe events and reduce the loss of personnel and property caused by accidents, a combined forecasting method of aviation equipment unsafe events is put forward by combining grey disaster and regression analysis. The method first finds out the disaster point (the date of occurrence of the disaster) from the data, then establishes the grey disaster model of these disaster points to predict the future disaster point, and then constructs the grey prediction model for the value of these disaster points. The catastrophe value of the future disaster point is calculated, and for the non-catastrophic point, a suitable regression analysis model can be established to predict it. In order to verify its feasibility, based on the frequency data of aviation equipment unsafe events in a flight training base, a grey disaster regression combined prediction model is established. The results show that, The average relative error predicted by the model from 2001 to 2004 is less than 6.87%. The combined model can objectively reflect the actual situation of aviation equipment safety in the future.
【作者单位】：西京学院;空军工程大学空管领航学院;空军西安飞行学院;
【分类号】：V328

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