化工园区人员疏散及避难所选址理论研究

发布时间：2018-05-21 20:28

本文选题：化学工业园区 + 疏散速度　；参考：《中国科学技术大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近些年来,全世界范围内的化学工业园区突发性灾害事故时有发生,化工灾害场景下的人员疏散行为研究、应急疏散路径规划以及应急避难场所的选址规划问题也日益得到了公共安全领域的高度重视。迄今为止,已经提出了很多关于各种化工灾害下的人群疏散的微观或宏观模型研究,这些模型有利的推动了化学工业园区应急处置能力科技领域的发展。但是,关于可视性情况受损情况下不同性别的疏散人员的疏散速度的研究,结合毒气扩散影响的应急疏散路径规划以及综合的多目标的应急避难场所的选址问题三个层面的研究目前相对较少,因此,这三个方面将是本研究的研究重点。在可见度受损情况下的不同性别的人员疏散速度的研究方面,本文在教室内进行了小规模模拟实验,并用摄像机记录了整个疏散过程。在此基础上研究了性别对疏散速度的影响。年轻女性志愿者在可视性情况良好状况下的疏散速度是0.92m/s,当可见度受损时,疏散速度变为0.42m/s；此外,年轻男性志愿者在可视性情况良好状况下的疏散速度是0.91m/s,当可见度受损时,疏散速度变为0.69m/s.同时通过分析整体数据可以发现疏散过程中的人群速度分布服从高斯分布。该实验数据的获得有助于建立结构内部布置类似于教室场景的建筑物内的人员疏散模型,如：化学工业园区、体育馆、健身房等。在毒性泄漏扩散场景下的应急疏散路径规划方面,本文首先建立了疏散决策系统的理论模型,同时提出了确定应急疏散范围的方法。在毒气泄漏扩散的情况下,最佳的应急疏散路径是人群在疏散过程中吸入的毒气浓度最小,在此理论基础上,提出了一个参数Dvi-vj用于量化应急疏散路径上毒气浓度对疏散人员的健康伤害,并结合高斯模型提出了毒气扩散场景下的路径规划模型,并通过与现有的模型进行比较,证明了本文提出的疏散模型适用范围更广也更加精确。同时本文提出的模型也可以用于化学工业园区的性能化设计。在化学工业园区应急避难场所的研究方面,本文建立了适用于化学工业园区应急避难场所选址的运输-选址问题(transportation-location problem, TLP问题)。同时提出了TLP问题的紧急决策过程的理论模型。化工园区的TLP问题是一个多目标的选址问题,包含多个子目标,如社会脆弱性、通行概率以及时间满意度。各个受灾区域根据人员脆弱性模型形成一个优先级层次结构。此外,该模型还要求满足疏散过程中的时间满意度最大以及通行概率的整体最大。通过研究表明本文提出的模型灵活且适用性强。
[Abstract]:In recent years, sudden disasters and accidents have occurred in chemical industrial parks all over the world. The problem of emergency evacuation path planning and emergency shelter location planning has been paid more and more attention in the field of public safety. Up to now, a lot of micro or macro models on evacuation of people under various chemical disasters have been put forward. These models have promoted the development of emergency response capacity of chemical industrial park. However, the study on the speed of evacuation of evacuees of different sexes in the event of impaired visibility, There are few researches on emergency evacuation path planning combined with the influence of gas diffusion and comprehensive multi-objective emergency shelter location problem. Therefore, these three aspects will be the focus of this study. In the study of evacuation speed of different genders under the condition of impaired visibility, a small scale simulation experiment was carried out in the classroom, and the whole evacuation process was recorded by video camera. On this basis, the influence of gender on evacuation speed was studied. The evacuation rate of young female volunteers in good visibility was 0.92 m / s, and when visibility was impaired, the evacuation rate was 0.42 m / s; in addition, when the visibility was good, the evacuation rate of young male volunteers was 0.91m / s, and when visibility was impaired, The evacuation speed was 0.69 m / s. At the same time, by analyzing the whole data, we can find the velocity distribution of the crowd in the evacuation process from the Gao Si distribution. The data from the experiment can be used to build evacuation models in buildings with similar interior layout to classroom settings, such as chemical industrial parks, gymnasiums, and so on. In the aspect of emergency evacuation path planning in toxic leakage diffusion scenario, the theoretical model of evacuation decision system is established, and the method of determining emergency evacuation range is proposed. In the case of gas leakage and diffusion, the best emergency evacuation path is that the concentration of toxic gas inhaled by the crowd during evacuation is the smallest. On the basis of this theory, In this paper, a parameter Dvi-vj is proposed to quantify the health damage caused by the concentration of toxic gas on the emergency evacuation path, and the path planning model in the scenario of gas diffusion is proposed by combining with the Gao Si model, and the model is compared with the existing model. It is proved that the proposed evacuation model is more applicable and accurate. At the same time, the model proposed in this paper can also be used in the performance design of chemical industrial park. In this paper, a transportation-location problem, TLP problem, which is suitable for the location of emergency shelter in chemical industrial park is established. At the same time, a theoretical model of emergency decision process for TLP problem is proposed. The TLP problem of chemical park is a multi-objective location problem, which includes many sub-objectives, such as social vulnerability, probability of passage and time satisfaction. Each affected area forms a priority hierarchy according to the personnel vulnerability model. In addition, the model also needs to satisfy the maximum time satisfaction and overall traffic probability in the evacuation process. The research shows that the proposed model is flexible and applicable.
【学位授予单位】：中国科学技术大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TQ086

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