城市轨道交通运营安全风险预测研究与应用

发布时间：2018-05-25 01:45

本文选题：城市轨道交通 + 管理信息系统　；参考：《天津职业技术师范大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来我国多数城市已开通轨道交通运输，加之城市轨道交通属于乘客密集型公共场所，大都在地下密闭空间运行，如若发生安全事件，将产生极大的社会影响。因此保障地铁运营的安全成为运营企业首要的工作重点。鉴于多数城市的城市轨道交通工程属于新建或改扩建，其运营安全管理经验相对欠缺，新技术的运用、新人员的增加、局部社会不稳定的态势、网络化的运行给地铁运营安全管理工作带来了新的挑战。安全风险预测是城市轨道交通安全管控工作的核心之一。城市轨道交通运营安全的历史事件及数据、运营管理公司的安全工作经验、领域内的专家知识都是城市轨道交通运营安全风险预测的重要组成部分。城市轨道交通运营专业性强、装备技术复杂、乘客参与人数多，，因而对其进行风险预测难度较大，这是一种典型的不确定性知识的表达与推理过程，主要依赖于世界上智能理论的发展，应用先进理论对城市轨道交通运营体系进行有效建模分析，将极大提高其安全风险预测水平。安全管理工作的现代化管理模式必须适应新时期内的企业标准化要求，安全管理信息系统是安全管理中的重要组成部分。科学合理化预测和控制安全事故不但可以避免企业经济损失，而且创造额外利润，其地位几乎与技术、资金等因素基本相等同。在科学技术飞速发展的21世纪，企业只有对安全信息进行有效管理和合理决策分析，才能科学采取有效措施预防安全事故的发生和减少经济损失。企业通过安全管理信息系统需求分析，开发并运用安全管理信息系统，将日常安全管理信息上传至系统SQL Server数据库，运用安全预测分析理论与数学模型和方法分析数据库信息和预测事故发展趋势，找出造成事故的原因并总结经验，科学预测事故发生的高频时段。贝叶斯网是不确定知识的表达与推理的智能理论之一，在军队、政府、医疗、航空等领域有了较为成功的应用案例，将其引入城市轨道交通运营安全风险预测工作中，将极大地拓展其应用的范围与理论深度，通过结合城市轨道交通领域内专家知识，共同推测系统运营安全的专项或整体水平，寻找安全管控中的薄弱环节，进行措施的改进，进一步提高安全管理决策的能力，使其更加科学可靠。
[Abstract]:In recent years, rail transit has been opened in most cities of our country. In addition, urban rail transit belongs to passenger intensive public places, and most of them operate in closed underground space. If safety incidents occur, it will have a great social impact. Therefore, to ensure the safety of subway operation has become the primary focus of the operation enterprise. In view of the fact that the urban rail transit projects in most cities belong to new construction or reconstruction and extension, their operation safety management experience is relatively lacking, the application of new technology, the increase of new personnel, and the unstable situation of local society. The operation of network brings new challenges to the safety management of subway operation. Safety risk prediction is one of the core of urban rail transit safety control. The historical events and data of urban rail transit operation safety, the safety work experience of the operation management company, and the expert knowledge in the field are all important components of the urban rail transit operation safety risk prediction. The operation of urban rail transit is highly professional, the equipment technology is complex, and the number of passengers is large, so it is difficult to predict the risk, which is a typical uncertain knowledge expression and reasoning process. Depending on the development of intelligent theory in the world, the application of advanced theory to the effective modeling and analysis of urban rail transit operation system will greatly improve the level of safety risk prediction. The modern management mode of safety management must meet the requirements of enterprise standardization in the new period. Safety management information system is an important part of security management. Scientific and rational prediction and control of safety accidents can not only avoid economic losses of enterprises but also create extra profits. Their status is almost the same as that of technology and capital. In the 21st century, with the rapid development of science and technology, enterprises can take effective measures to prevent the occurrence of safety accidents and reduce economic losses only by effective management and rational decision analysis of safety information. Through the security management information system requirement analysis, the enterprise develops and uses the security management information system, uploads the daily security management information to the system SQL Server database, The theory of safety prediction and mathematical model and method are used to analyze the database information and forecast the developing trend of accidents, to find out the causes of accidents and to sum up the experience, and to scientifically predict the high frequency period of accidents. Bayesian network is one of the intelligent theories of uncertain knowledge expression and reasoning. It has been successfully applied in military, government, medical, aviation and other fields. It will greatly expand the scope of its application and theoretical depth, through the combination of the field of urban rail transit experts knowledge, jointly speculate on the system operation safety special or overall level, to find the weak links in safety control, measures to improve, Further improve the ability of safety management decision-making, make it more scientific and reliable.
【学位授予单位】：天津职业技术师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：U298

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