基于安全链条的高铁运营过程安全风险识别及预警研究

发布时间：2018-05-27 15:15

本文选题：高速铁路运营过程 + 安全链条模型　；参考：《大连交通大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：安全作为运营工作的主线,贯穿于铁路运输整个过程,是工作人员及社会大众关注的焦点。近年来,随着高速铁路的快速发展,其运营里程达到世界第一的同时,线网规模也在日益扩大。然而在世人为高速铁路跨越式发展欢呼喝彩的同时,高速铁路运营安全问题也被提上日程。由于高速铁路系统庞大复杂,涉及的车、机、工、电、辆等众多部门,因此,其在人员、设备、环境、管理方面存在的风险源也日趋增多。为应对高速铁路运营过程中的突发事故,本文对高速铁路运营过程中的安全风险因子进行识别与预警研究,运用系统的方法识别风险因子,建立风险因子指标体系,并进行相关性分析,确定影响最大的因子,构建预警管理系统,为进一步保障高速铁路运营过程安全提供实际的理论参考与应用意义。本论文的研究工作主要包括如下几方面:(1)构建了高速铁路运营过程安全链条模型。基于太原路局的实地调研分析,确定高铁运营安全的定义以及目标,同时在对高速铁路运行过程分析的基础上,从线路基础、运行调度以及运营控制三大环节着手,建立了高速铁路安全链条模型,并对高速铁路安全链条模型四大单元(调度中心、线路基础、列控中心、列车运行系统)进行详细分析,确定各单元的安全链条节点,从而进一步提出高速铁路安全链条模型的应用。(2)分析了高速铁路运营过程安全风险因子,建立了安全风险指标体系。基于安全链条模型,通过HAZOP分析方法,从“人设备环境管理”四方面对高速铁路运营过程安全风险因子进行分析及确定,同时运用粗集理论对安全风险因子进行属性约简及提取,最终进行安全风险指标体的优化。(3)对高速铁路运营过程安全风险指标体系因子进行相关性分析。针对安全风险因子核心指标体系设计调查问卷,获取样本数据,并通过信度与效度分析确定样本数据的适用性,最后运用结构方程模型进行量化分析,确定各单元与高铁运营过程安全的相关性,将模糊问题数学化。(4)构建了列车控制中心预警管理系统。针对影响最大的因子,构建预警管理系统,在分析安全预警基本机制的基础上,从预警内容和预警对策入手,着重讨论了列车控制单元预警管理系统的各项监测指标以及对预警区间的划分,进一步提出了高速铁路列控单元预警管理系统的工作流程,同时从有效和失效的角度讨论了列控单元预警管理系统的运作模式,为高速铁路运营安全提供技术支持。
[Abstract]:Safety, as the main line of operation, runs through the whole process of railway transportation and is the focus of staff and the public. In recent years, with the rapid development of high-speed railway, the mileage of its operation reaches the first in the world, and the network scale is expanding day by day. However, while the world cheered for the rapid development of high-speed railway, the safety of high-speed railway operation has also been put on the agenda. Because the high-speed railway system is huge and complex, involving many departments such as car, machine, industry, electricity, vehicle and so on, the risk sources of its personnel, equipment, environment and management are also increasing day by day. In order to deal with the sudden accidents in the process of high-speed railway operation, this paper studies the identification and early warning of the safety risk factors in the operation of high-speed railway, uses the systematic method to identify the risk factors, and establishes the index system of the risk factors. The correlation analysis is carried out to determine the most influential factors and to construct an early warning management system to provide practical theoretical reference and practical significance for further ensuring the safety of high-speed railway operation process. The research work of this paper mainly includes the following aspects: 1) constructing the safety chain model of high-speed railway operation process. Based on the field investigation and analysis of Taiyuan Road Bureau, the definition and goal of high-speed railway operation safety are determined. At the same time, on the basis of analyzing the operation process of high-speed railway, it starts with three major links: line foundation, operation dispatch and operation control. The safety chain model of high-speed railway is established, and the four units (dispatching center, line foundation, train control center, train operation system) of the safety chain model of high-speed railway are analyzed in detail, and the safety chain nodes of each unit are determined. Thus, the application of safety chain model of high-speed railway is put forward. The safety risk factors of high-speed railway operation process are analyzed, and the safety risk index system is established. Based on the safety chain model and HAZOP analysis method, this paper analyzes and determines the safety risk factors of high-speed railway operation process from the four aspects of "mannequin equipment environment management". At the same time, the rough set theory is used to reduce and extract the safety risk factors. Finally, the optimization of the safety risk index body is carried out. Finally, the correlation analysis of the safety risk index system factors in the operation process of high-speed railway is carried out. According to the core index system of the security risk factor, the questionnaire is designed to obtain the sample data, and the applicability of the sample data is determined by reliability and validity analysis. Finally, the structural equation model is used for quantitative analysis. The correlation between each unit and the safety of high-speed railway operation is determined, and the fuzzy problem is mathematized to construct the early warning management system of the train control center. Based on the analysis of the basic mechanism of security early warning, the paper starts with the contents and countermeasures of early warning. The monitoring indexes of train control unit early warning management system and the division of early warning interval are discussed, and the workflow of train control unit early warning management system of high speed railway is put forward. At the same time, the operation mode of train control unit early warning management system is discussed from the point of view of efficiency and failure, which provides technical support for high-speed railway operation safety.
【学位授予单位】：大连交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：U298

【参考文献】