基于Logistic统计方法的煤粉爆炸下限研究

发布时间：2018-05-28 13:21

本文选题：粉尘爆炸 + 煤粉　；参考：《煤炭学报》2015年01期

【摘要】：粉尘云爆炸下限是表征粉尘易燃易爆危险性的主要参数,相对精确地测试并表示粉尘云爆炸下限对评估和预防粉尘爆炸灾害是十分重要的。基于统计分析的Logistic回归模型,应用以概率表示粉尘云爆炸下限的计算方法,在20 L球形爆炸罐中对不同粒径的煤粉-空气混合物进行爆炸下限测试实验,利用SPSS统计分析软件计算得到不同粒径、不同实验次数下煤粉点火成功概率-浓度分布曲线,结果表明不同点火概率下的爆炸下限均随粒径的减小而呈现逐渐减小的趋势,且粉尘粒径越小,点火成功概率从p=10%增至p=90%的浓度区间越窄,即其燃爆特性越稳定。实验次数对爆炸下限概率分布存在影响,实验次数越多,爆炸下限概率分布的浓度区间越窄,但点火概率为50%的浓度值与实验次数无关,是研究粉尘爆炸下限的关键值。与其他计算方法的结果相比,以概率表示特定物质的爆炸下限更符合实际情况,更能满足不同生产环境对安全控制的需要。
[Abstract]:The lower limit of dust cloud explosion is the main parameter to characterize the flammable and explosive hazard of dust. It is very important to test and indicate that the lower limit of dust cloud explosion is very important to evaluate and prevent the hazard of dust explosion. Based on the Logistic regression model of statistical analysis and using the method of calculating the lower limit of dust cloud explosion with probability, the lower limit test experiment of pulverized coal and air mixture with different particle size was carried out in 20L spherical explosion tank. The probability and concentration distribution curves of pulverized coal ignition were calculated by using SPSS software. The results show that the lower limit of explosion decreases gradually with the decrease of particle size. The smaller the particle size of dust is, the narrower the concentration range of ignition success is from 10% to 90%, that is, the more stable the detonation characteristic is. The number of experiments has an effect on the probability distribution of the lower limit of explosion. The more the number of experiments is, the narrower the concentration range of the probability distribution of the lower limit of explosion is, but the concentration of 50% ignition probability is independent of the number of experiments, which is the key value to study the lower limit of dust explosion. Compared with the results of other calculation methods, the lower explosive limit of a particular material expressed by probability is more suitable to the actual situation and meets the need of safety control in different production environments.
【作者单位】：北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室;北京市燃气集团有限责任公司;中国人民武装警察部队学院消防工程系;
【基金】：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2011CB706904)
【分类号】：TD714.5

【参考文献】