基于贝叶斯网络的港口船舶溢油风险评价及应用研究

发布时间：2018-06-07 09:40

本文选题：船舶溢油 + 风险　；参考：《武汉理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：船舶溢油事故已成为造成海洋环境污染的主要因素之一。频繁发生的船舶溢油事故严重危害海洋生态系统,使当地渔业、水产养殖业、旅游业等蒙受惨重的经济损失,对经济发展与海洋环境保护极为不利。因而,进行船舶溢油事故风险评价及风险防范措施的研究,尤其在港口溢油应急设备配备和溢油应急计划的制定阶段开展此项工作,将有助于更好地进行港口船舶溢油风险管理与决策,对海洋环境保护具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。本论文在对前人研究工作进行总结和分析的基础上,基于运筹学、环境评价学和环境管理学等多学科的理论,首次利用贝叶斯网络的数据挖掘能力进行港口船舶溢油风险评价。本文通过分析近年我国沿海港口发生的船舶溢油事故和险情数据,将溢油事故按照操作性溢油事故和海损性溢油事故分类来进行研究,得出了导致两类船舶溢油事故发生的致因因素,进而确定各因素之间的因果关系,建立起两类船舶溢油风险贝叶斯网络模型,利用HUGIN软件进行网络概率推理,根据推理结果,得出评价海域内两类船舶溢油风险水平和导致两类船舶溢油事故的敏感致因因素,找出关键的控制点,为降低溢油风险提出相应的措施和建议。最后,将网络模型应用于宁波—舟山港六横港区的案例研究,预测与评价六横港区两类船舶溢油风险,预测结果与实际情况基本吻合。 ’本文的研究成果有助于提高港口溢油污染应对能力和完善整个港口水域域污染应急计划,同时可以为海事管理部门提供参考。
[Abstract]:Ship oil spill accident has become one of the main factors of marine environmental pollution. The frequent oil spills of ships seriously harm the marine ecosystem and cause heavy economic losses to local fisheries aquaculture tourism and so on which are extremely disadvantageous to economic development and marine environmental protection. Therefore, risk assessment and risk prevention measures for oil spill accidents are studied, especially in the stage of port oil spill emergency equipment equipping and oil spill emergency planning. It will be helpful for better management and decision making of oil spill risk of port ships, and will be of great academic value and practical significance to marine environmental protection. On the basis of summarizing and analyzing the previous research work, based on the theories of operational research, environmental evaluation and environmental management, this paper firstly uses the data mining ability of Bayesian network to evaluate the oil spill risk of port ships. Based on the analysis of ship oil spill accidents and risk data in coastal ports of China in recent years, the oil spill accidents are classified according to operational oil spill accidents and average oil spill accidents. The cause factors of two kinds of ship oil spill accidents are obtained, and the causality between them is determined. The Bayesian network model of the two kinds of ship oil spill risk is established, and the network probability reasoning is carried out by using HUGIN software, according to the result of inference. The risk level of oil spill of two kinds of ships in the sea area and the sensitive factors leading to oil spill accidents of two kinds of ships are evaluated, and the key control points are found out, and the corresponding measures and suggestions for reducing oil spill risk are put forward. Finally, the network model is applied to the case study of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port, and two types of ship oil spill risk are forecasted and evaluated. The prediction results are in good agreement with the actual situation. The research results of this paper are helpful to improve the response ability of oil spill pollution and improve the pollution emergency plan of the whole port water area, and can also provide a reference for the maritime administration department.
【学位授予单位】：武汉理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.7

【参考文献】