基于聚类多属性专家群决策的石岛船舶警戒区设立研究

发布时间：2018-06-08 21:22

本文选题：船舶警戒区 + 交通流　；参考：《大连海事大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：石岛水域附近商渔船交通流量大,船舶交汇密集,通航环境复杂。该水域渔船密集,有渔业作业区16个,每年作业渔船达几十万艘次。加之多股交通流在该水域交叉汇聚,商船习惯航路又与众多渔场交织在一起。多种因素共同导致该水域水上交通事故频发。本文关于石岛水域设立船舶警戒区相关研究,旨在证明该水域是否必要设立船舶警戒区,以及对推荐的设立的船舶警戒区的合理性进行评估,以确保在该水域设立船舶警戒区是最佳的船舶定线制方案,为海事主管部门决策时提供一定的理论依据。为了改变石岛水域水上交通事故频发的局面,确保过往船只的安全,采取最佳的船舶定线制解决方案。本文通过对石岛水域通航环境调研、查阅相关历史资料以及问卷调查,了解了该水域的水文、气象及通航情况。基于AIS(Automatic Identification System)中心提供的石岛水域近些年的船舶交通流数据,同时结合IMO(International Maritime Organization)《关于船舶定线制的一般规定》的定线制设计规范,分析了该水域船舶事故多发的原因,结合石岛水域商渔船密集的特点,推荐在石岛交通流密集水域设立船舶警戒区,该警戒区比较特殊,不与其他船舶定线制相结合,目前全球被IMO所采纳的类似船舶警戒区只有7个。本文结合IMO相关设计规范和石岛水域的通航特点,从交通流、渔船及渔民、船舶事故和警戒区设置的一般规律几个方面进行了阐述,建立了石岛水域设立单独船舶警戒区评价指标体系,以对该水域设立单独船舶警戒区的必要程度和推荐的船舶警戒区的合理性进行综合评价。在计算指标权重时,由于专家间经验以及知识水平不一致,评价结果可能会存在一定的误差,本文采用的聚类多属性专家群决策的方法,考虑了专家权重,可以有效减少这方面的误差。并且本文采用定性与定量分析相结合的方法,能使评价标准更加客观准确。
[Abstract]:The traffic volume of commercial fishing vessel near Shidao waters is large, the vessel intersection is dense, and the navigation environment is complex. There are 16 fishing areas in this area, and hundreds of thousands of fishing boats are operated every year. In addition, multiple streams of traffic converge in the waters, and merchant shipping routes are intertwined with many fishing grounds. A variety of factors together lead to frequent water traffic accidents in this water area. The purpose of this paper is to prove whether a ship warning zone is necessary in the waters of Shek Island, and to evaluate the reasonableness of the recommended ship warning zone. In order to ensure the establishment of ship warning zone in the water area is the best ship routing scheme, and provide a certain theoretical basis for the maritime authorities to make decisions. In order to change the situation of frequent traffic accidents and ensure the safety of passing ships, the best ship routing solution is adopted. Based on the investigation of navigable environment in the waters of Shijiao, this paper finds out the hydrological, meteorological and navigable conditions of the waters by referring to the relevant historical data and questionnaire. Based on the ship traffic flow data provided by the AIS-automatic Identification system Center in recent years, combined with the design specification of the ship routing system of International Maritime Organization, this paper analyzes the reasons for the frequent accidents of ships in this water area. Combined with the characteristics of dense fishing vessels in Shidao waters, it is recommended that a vessel warning zone be set up in the waters with dense traffic flow on the island, which is rather special and does not combine with other ship routing systems. At present, there are only seven similar ship warning zones adopted by IMO worldwide. Combined with IMO design code and navigation characteristics of Shidao waters, this paper expounds the general rules of traffic flow, fishing boats and fishermen, ship accidents and the setting of warning zones. In order to evaluate the necessity of establishing a separate ship warning zone and the rationality of the recommended ship warning zone, an evaluation index system is established for the establishment of a separate ship warning zone in the waters of Shijima. When calculating index weight, due to the inconsistency of experience and knowledge level among experts, there may be some errors in the evaluation results. In this paper, the expert weight is considered in the method of clustering multi-attribute expert group decision. It can effectively reduce the error in this respect. The method of qualitative and quantitative analysis is used in this paper, which can make the evaluation standard more objective and accurate.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698

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