煤矿安全风险评价与预警研究

发布时间：2018-06-09 05:04

本文选题：安全风险 + 安全评价　；参考：《中国矿业大学》2013年博士论文

【摘要】：煤矿的安全问题已经成为煤矿可持续发展的头等大事，而如何提前发现并判别潜在的安全风险是煤矿安全问题的重中之重。本文在理论分析与实际调研的基础上，主要解决两个问题。一是解决安全风险的评价问题，即判断煤矿目前是否存在安全风险，主要用于定期判断煤矿目前的安全风险状况。二是解决安全风险的预警问题，即如何通过一定的预警指标与预警区间进行日常性的安全风险判断与提示。首先，论文在对相关安全风险评价与预警理论综述的基础上，主要研究用于煤矿的安全风险评价原理与方法以及安全风险预警理论与方法，为后续研究提供理论与方法基础。论文对目前常用的风险评价方法与预警方法进了全面的总结，分析了这些方法的优点与确定，并总结了对煤炭企业安全风险评价与预警的适用性。对方法的总结力求全面与详细，为后文方法的选择提供帮助。另外，对风险评价与预警的理论也进行了一定的梳理，归纳出能够用于煤矿风险评价与预警的共性理论。然后，根据煤矿安全风险产生的特殊性，分析了选用安全风险评价、预警理论与方法所遵循的选择，并依据扎根理论，构建了煤矿安全风险评价体系与预警系统的建立步骤。第二，对煤矿安全生产风险评价指标体系与权重进行设计与确定。在分析煤矿生产的复杂性、动态变化性、随机性、灾害事故的关联性等风险特点的基础上，从科学性、系统性、全面性、易评价性、定性与定量相结合、独立性等六个方面提出了煤矿安全生产风险评价指标设计的原则。并在典型案例分析、文献研究的基础上，通过进行访谈和调研，在广泛征求专家意见的基础上，基于“人、机、物、环、法”的理论框架，建立了人力资源配置、规章制度及执行、作业环境、地测及防治水、一通三防、防止煤与瓦斯突出、采掘系统、机运系统、煤矿固有风险等九大类煤矿安全生产风险评价指标体系，并进一步进行了细化为105个具体指标。另外，在此基础上，进行了煤矿安全生产风险评价指标权重确定。主要对整个安全风险评价体系中权重进行计算，并归纳确定安全风险评价标准。依据调研问卷，使用网络层次分析法进行各个安全风险评价指标权重的确定。并在权重确定的基础上，建立了安全风险评价指标的评价标准。第三，构建了煤矿安全风险预警指标体系与预警机制。为了达到管理层日常安全管理的目的，论文依据安全风险评价指标与调研结果，使用扎根理论对安全评价指标进行遴选，确定安全风险预警指标体系，并依据聚类分析与判别分析确定安全预警单一指标预警区间与综合预警判别函数。首先从人力资源方面、安全投入效率与安全管理制度实施效率等三个方面建立衡量安全风险的预警指标体系；其次依据安全风险预警指标建立针对单一指标的预警区间，确定正常、轻警、中警与重警四个预警区间的临界值；再次使用FISHER判别模型构建安全风险综合预警判断函数，依据函数与煤矿现实指标状况判断煤矿目前所处的安全风险警度；最后依托煤矿安全风险预警体系，，建立了煤矿安全风险预警判别与应对机制。第四，归纳煤矿安全风险预警的具体方法，并构建用于安全风险预警的配套机制与管理系统。主要归纳了适用于煤矿安全风险预警的具体方法，是以预警指标与预警区间作为基础的，并在此基础上，构建了与安全风险预警体系相配套的实施机制，包括在人力资源方面、安全投入方面与安全制度构建等方面的实施机制。同时，还构建了用于实施安全风险预警体系的信息管理系统。第五，选择袁店煤矿作为研究对象，具体对煤矿安全生产风险预警指标体系进行测试。主要将安全风险预警指标体系应用到典型煤矿应用，分析其适用性。具体根据该煤矿2011年的数据计算得到安全风险预警指标的具体数值，对应单一指标的预警区间，分别判断该矿在人力资源、安全投入与安全制度三个方面所处的警度。然后，对综合风险的测试从两个方面着手进行。一方面，使用FISHER判别模型，将具体预警指标代入，具体得到目前安全风险的总体警度。该方法能够比较直观地判断安全风险的警度状态。但该方法也存在一定的弊端，FISHER判别模型需要进行定期更新，使得模型能够非常接近于现状。另一方面，使用粗糙集进行经验衡量，具体依据对单项指标警度的判断，联合判断总体安全风险的警度。在实际应用中，一般将两种方法综合起来使用，以期达到更好的预警效果。
[Abstract]:The safety problem of coal mine has become the top priority of the sustainable development of coal mine, and how to find and distinguish the potential safety risk ahead of time is the most important problem of coal mine safety. On the basis of theoretical analysis and practical investigation, this paper mainly solves two problems. One is to solve the evaluation problem of safety risk, that is to judge whether the coal mine is at present. There is a security risk, which is mainly used to determine the current safety risk status of the coal mine. Two is to solve the early warning problem of security risk, that is, how to judge and prompt the daily safety risk through a certain early warning index and early warning interval.
First, on the basis of the related safety risk assessment and early warning theory, this paper mainly studies the principle and method of safety risk assessment for coal mine and the theory and method of safety risk early warning, and provides the basis for the follow-up research. The advantages and determination of these methods are analyzed, and the applicability of the safety risk assessment and early warning of coal enterprises is summed up. The summary of the methods is summarized and detailed to provide help for the selection of the later methods. In addition, the theory of risk assessment and early warning is also given a certain comb, and it can be concluded that it can be used to evaluate and predict the risk of coal mine. Then, according to the particularity of the coal mine safety risk, the selection of the safety risk assessment, the early warning theory and the method are analyzed, and the establishment steps of the coal mine safety risk assessment system and the early warning system are built on the basis of the grounded theory.
Second, design and determine the risk evaluation index system and weight of coal mine safety production. On the basis of analyzing the risk characteristics of coal mine production complexity, dynamic change, randomness, and the relevance of disaster accidents, it is put forward from six aspects: scientific, systematic, comprehensive, easily evaluative, qualitative and quantitative, and independence. On the basis of typical case analysis and literature research, on the basis of interviews and research, on the basis of extensive consultation and research, based on the theoretical framework of "human, machine, material, ring, and law", the allocation of human resources, rules and regulations and implementation, operating environment, survey and prevention and control of water are established. In order to prevent coal and gas outburst, coal and gas outburst, mining system, machine transportation system and inherent risk of coal mine, it has been further refined into 105 specific indexes. On the other hand, the weight of risk assessment index of coal mine safety production is determined. In the price system, the weight is calculated and the safety risk evaluation standard is determined. According to the questionnaire, the weight of each safety risk evaluation index is determined by the network analytic hierarchy process. On the basis of the weight determination, the evaluation criteria of the safety risk evaluation index are established.
Third, the early warning index system and early warning mechanism of coal mine safety risk are constructed. In order to achieve the goal of daily safety management, the paper selects the safety evaluation index based on the safety risk evaluation index and research result, uses the grounded theory to determine the safety risk early warning index system, and according to the cluster analysis and discriminant analysis. Set up a single index warning interval and comprehensive early warning discriminant function. First, we set up an early warning index system to measure security risk from three aspects, such as human resources, safety input efficiency and safety management system implementation efficiency, and then establish an early warning interval based on a single index according to the early warning index of safety risk. The critical value of four warning intervals of the light police, the central police and the heavy police, and the FISHER discriminant model is used to construct the comprehensive early warning function of the safety risk, and the safety risk alarm of the coal mine is judged according to the function of the coal mine and the actual index of the coal mine. Finally, the early warning system of the coal mine safety risk is used to establish the early warning of the safety risk of the coal mine. And coping mechanism.
Fourth, generalizes the concrete methods of the early warning of the coal mine safety risk, and constructs the supporting mechanism and management system for the early warning of safety risk. It mainly summarizes the specific methods applicable to the early warning of the coal mine safety risk, which is based on the early warning index and the early warning interval, and on this basis, constructs the matching with the security risk early warning system. The implementation mechanism includes the implementation mechanism of human resources, security input and security system construction. At the same time, the information management system for the implementation of the security risk early warning system is also constructed.
Fifth, to choose Yuandian coal mine as the research object, to test the risk early-warning index system of coal mine safety production, and apply the safety risk early warning index system to the typical coal mine application and analyze its applicability. The concrete value of the early warning index of the safety risk is calculated according to the 2011 data of the coal mine, corresponding to the single index. The standard warning interval is used to judge the degree of the mine in the three aspects of human resources, safety investment and safety system. Then, the test of comprehensive risk is carried out from two aspects. On the one hand, the FISHER discriminant model is used to replace the specific early warning index, and the overall alarm of the current security risk is obtained. This method can be compared. The alarm state of security risk is judged intuitively, but the method also has some drawbacks. The FISHER discriminant model needs to be updated regularly so that the model can be very close to the present situation. On the other hand, the rough set is used to measure the experience, and the alarm degree of the overall security risk is determined according to the judgment of the single index. In the application, two methods are generally used together to achieve better early warning effect.
【学位授予单位】：中国矿业大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X936

【参考文献】