生命线系统级联失效路径及节点重要度分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 17:26

本文选题：灾害 + 生命线系统　；参考：《大连理工大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：生命线系统是保障城市“生命”正常运转的中枢系统,是维系现代城市功能与区域经济功能的基础性工程设施,它是对城市供水、供电、通信、交通、供气、输油等关键工程系统的统称。自然灾害危害着人类生命财产和生存条件,城市在遭受灾害后,供水、供电、通信、交通、供气等关键生命线系统因遭到破坏而丧失服务能力,给人民生活带来巨大的痛苦和灾难,同时还可能进一步引发次生灾害,使整个城市陷入瘫痪。近年来灾害频繁发生,使得研究灾害环境下生命线系统的失效模式日渐重要。灾害作用下生命线系统的破坏模式多为由于网络中某处遭受破坏(自然因素或人为原因)引起整个网络失效的连锁反应,严重时可导致整个系统瘫痪,造成崩溃的灾难性后果。但目前国内外有关灾害环境下生命线系统失效模式及如何提高其抗灾可靠性方面的研究成果较少且存在一定问题。为此,本文以生命线系统的级联失效路径和节点重要度两个方面作为切入点,对灾害环境下生命线系统的失效模式进行了深入探讨。首先,提出了灾害环境下生命线系统节点失效关联度的概念并给出了确定方法。以供水管网为例,使用基于EPANET2.0二次开发的灾害模拟程序对管网遭受的灾害环境进行动态模拟,应用灰色关联分析方法,计算并比较网络中节点之间的失效关联度,分析了资源供给特性和网络拓扑特性两方面对供水管网级联失效过程的影响。在此基础上,又对灾害环境下生命线系统的级联失效路径进行了研究。定义了生命线系统级联失效路径和关键失效路径的概念,提出了确定级联失效路径和关键失效路径的方法,通过实例分析对该方法的正确性和实用性进行了验证。利用该方法识别出生命线系统的关键失效路径,从而可以在有成本等限制的条件下,仅仅通过从功能上提高关键失效路径的安全冗余来提高整个生命线系统的抗灾可靠性。其次,提出了一种灾害环境下生命线系统网络节点重要度的评价方法。以供水管网为例,综合考虑节点的网络拓扑结构和资源供给两方面因素并考虑灾害作用下生命线系统的级联失效特性选取评价指标,建立了供水系统网络节点重要度评价指标体系,运用可变模糊聚类分析方法,对实例供水系统节点进行了聚类分析。结果表明：通过聚类分析结果可以客观地找出生命线系统中的关键节点,进而通过提高这些关键节点的功能冗余,可以从源头上避免灾害作用下由于网络中关键节点损坏引发级联失效造成整个网络崩溃的严重后果,从而提高整个生命线系统的抗灾可靠性。
[Abstract]:Lifeline system is the central system to guarantee the normal operation of city "life" and the basic engineering facility to maintain the function of modern city and regional economy. It is to supply water, electricity, communication, traffic and gas to the city. Natural disaster endangers human life, property and living conditions. After disaster, the key lifeline systems such as water supply, power supply, communication, transportation, gas supply, etc., are damaged in cities and have lost their service capacity. It brings great suffering and disaster to people's life, and it may lead to secondary disasters and paralyze the whole city. In recent years, the frequent occurrence of disasters makes it more and more important to study the failure mode of lifeline system in disaster environment. The failure mode of lifeline system under the action of disaster is mostly the chain reaction of the whole network failure caused by the damage (natural factor or artificial reason) somewhere in the network, and when it is serious, the whole system can be paralyzed, resulting in the catastrophic consequence of collapse. However, there are few researches on the failure mode of lifeline system in disaster environment and how to improve its anti-disaster reliability at home and abroad. In this paper, the cascade failure path and node importance of lifeline system are taken as the breakthrough point, and the failure mode of lifeline system in disaster environment is discussed. The concept of node failure correlation degree of lifeline system in disaster environment is put forward and the method of determining it is given. Taking the water supply network as an example, the disaster simulation program based on EPANET2.0 is used to dynamically simulate the disaster environment suffered by the network. The grey relational analysis method is used to calculate and compare the failure correlation degree between nodes in the network. The effects of resource supply characteristics and network topology characteristics on the cascade failure process of water supply network are analyzed. On this basis, the cascade failure path of lifeline system in disaster environment is studied. The concepts of cascade failure path and critical failure path of lifeline system are defined. The method of determining cascade failure path and critical failure path is proposed. The correctness and practicability of this method are verified by an example. The key failure path of lifeline system can be identified by this method, so that the key failure path of lifeline system can be identified under the condition of limited cost and so on. The reliability of the whole lifeline system is improved only by improving the safety redundancy of the critical failure path. Secondly, an evaluation method of the importance of the lifeline network nodes in the disaster environment is proposed. Taking the water supply network as an example, considering the network topology and resource supply of nodes and considering the cascade failure characteristics of lifeline system under disaster, the evaluation index is selected. The evaluation index system of network node importance of water supply system is established, and the cluster analysis of the node of water supply system is carried out by using variable fuzzy cluster analysis method. The results show that the key nodes in the lifeline system can be found objectively by clustering analysis, and then the functional redundancy of these key nodes can be improved. It can avoid the serious consequences of the cascade failure caused by the damage of the critical nodes in the network from the source, thus improving the disaster resistance reliability of the whole lifeline system.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X913.4

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