A公司除尘工程项目风险管理研究

发布时间：2018-06-19 09:00

本文选题：风险管理 + 项目风险　；参考：《上海交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：随着经济的快速发展，人们越来越注重自己工作和生活的环境和自身的健康状况，营造一个良好的工作环境不但可以提升工作效率，保护员工的健康，而且可以加强员工对公司的忠诚度，进而留住合适的、优秀的员工与公司共同发展。工业除尘作为新兴的健康、安全、环保项目在国外已经日趋成熟，但在我国还属于尚未开发潜力市场，并在大型工程项目中显现出广阔的前景和潜力，但研究工作尚未形成专题化、系统化，工程实践中也没有规范地开展相应的专项风险管理工作。这些风险如果发生，不但增加了项目的各种潜在损失，而且很可能还会导致许多次生风险，增加项目的管理难度，使得项目变得不可控乃至失败。因此，对其进行专业的风险管理就显得尤为重要。本文采用专业PMP风险分析工具，，采取定性和定量相结合的风险研究方式（概率影响矩阵，敏感性分析，龙卷风图），贯穿项目的启动-规划-执行-监控-收尾全过程，对风险进行全程的跟踪和把控。从风险规划-识别-评估-分析-监控等过程将风险进行评级(高\中\低)，进而针对风险分解结构(RBS)对风险进行分解，在对项目风险进行精确描述的基础上，提出各级风险的应对策略和具体应对措施。利用风险监控进一步评估所识别风险是否发生以及所用应对策略和措施是否有效。在项目的执行过程中进一步识别新风险，完善风险登记册，建立风险预警系统，并在此基础上引入挣值管理的概念，对项目的进度和成本进行SPI和CPI值的实时管理和监控。在进度与计划一致，但成本严重偏差并有加大趋势的情况下，结合工作分解结构（WBS）中的成本工作包，采用Crystal ball进行蒙特卡洛分析和成本模拟，给出在一定置信度下，项目不同成功概率所对应的应急储备或管理储备，使项目管理人员对项目风险有较好的管理、跟踪和把控。
[Abstract]:With the rapid development of economy, people pay more and more attention to their working and living environment and their own health. Creating a good working environment can not only improve the working efficiency, but also protect the health of employees. And can strengthen employee loyalty to the company, and then retain the appropriate, excellent staff and the company common development. Industrial dust removal, as a new health, safety and environmental protection project, has become more and more mature in foreign countries, but it still belongs to the market of untapped potential in our country, and shows broad prospect and potential in large engineering projects. However, the research work has not yet been monographically and systematized, and the corresponding special risk management work has not been standardized in engineering practice. If these risks occur, it will not only increase the potential loss of the project, but also lead to many secondary risks, increase the difficulty of project management, make the project become uncontrollable and even fail. Therefore, it is particularly important to carry out professional risk management. This paper adopts the professional PMP risk analysis tool, adopts the qualitative and quantitative risk research method (probabilistic impact matrix, sensitivity analysis, tornado map), runs through the whole process of starting, planning, executing, monitoring and finishing of the project. Follow up and control the risk all the time. From the risk planning, identifying, evaluating, analyzing, monitoring and so on, the risk is graded (high, middle / low), and then the risk is decomposed according to the risk decomposition structure (RBS). Based on the accurate description of the project risk, Put forward all levels of risk coping strategies and specific countermeasures. Use risk monitoring to further assess whether the identified risk occurs and the effectiveness of the coping strategies and measures used. In the process of project implementation, new risks are further identified, risk registers are perfected, risk warning systems are established, and the concept of earned value management is introduced on this basis, and the SPI and CPI value real-time management and monitoring of project schedule and cost are carried out. Under the condition that the schedule is consistent with the plan, but the cost deviation is serious and the trend is increasing, combining with the cost work package in the work decomposition structure (WBS), using Crystal ball to carry out Monte Carlo analysis and cost simulation, it is given that under certain confidence, The emergency reserve or management reserve corresponding to the different success probability of the project makes the project manager better manage, track and control the project risk.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X964

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