地铁运营安全综合评估模型研究

发布时间：2018-06-23 08:55

本文选题：城市轨道交通 + 安全风险评估　；参考：《西南交通大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：交通需求的无限性和城市道路资源供给的有限性引起人们广泛关注轨道交通的发展。特别是随着北上广深等诸多大城市进入网络化运营时代以后,如何合理的对城市轨道交通的安全状态进行静态综合评估与动态微观辨识,一直以来是国内外学者重点探讨的课题。城市轨道交通安全问题的分析与辨识是一个大规模、多指标、复杂化的系统工程,是一个集宏观与微观、集静态与动态、集定性与定量分析的工作,其工作的深度与广度将直接影响城市轨道交通在城市综合交通系统中的地位,故本次课题的研究具有重要意义。在此背景下,本文首先对国内外既有研究评述的基础上,明确提出把城市轨道交通安全静态综合评估中的指标筛选问题、权重确定问题和动态综合研究中的图解演化问题和量化分析问题作为此次研究的重点；其次,通过对78起国外轨道交通运营事故和859起国内轨道交通运营事故进行统计分析,按照事故的类型分布、事故的发生时间、事故的发生空间、事故的等级分布、事故的延误分布以及网络的客流特征进行系统阐述并解释成因；接着,在事故统计学表象研究的基础上,运用系统安全分析方法,从人员自身因素、设施设备因素、环境因素、管理因素、网络运营因素五个角度分析影响城市轨道交通静态安全的主要因素,并据此提出概念指标体系和包含5个一级指标、21个二级指标,15个三级指标的精选指标体系；然后,将能表征更多分异信息的物元可拓模型和根据指标差异度进行客观赋权的熵权法结合起来,构建了基于熵权-可拓物元模型的城市轨道交通安全静态综合评估模型,并以北京地铁4-大兴线进行实例测算,实际运营情况与模型计算结果相较证明了模型的合理性和有效性。最后,考虑到静态模型对典型化事故研究太过宏观、针对性不强的缺点,引入了一种既能利用事故树分析顶事件概率又能反应事件树在时间层面的动态演绎性的原因-后果分析法,并据此构建了基于CCA模型的轨道交通事故动态感知模型,选取电机过热引起火灾这一特殊现象作为切入点,以因果分析图的形式和可靠性的计算方法实现事故演化过程的量化分析,结果表明：电机过热引起火灾事故在时间层面演变的最高效终结点为自动灭火阶段以及操作人员灭火成功与否对于火势蔓延程度至关重要,论证了模型的有效性。
[Abstract]:The infinity of traffic demand and the limited supply of urban road resources have drawn people's attention to the development of rail transit. Especially, after entering the networked operation era, how to evaluate the safety state of urban rail transit reasonably and dynamically microscopically identify the safety of urban rail transit, especially after entering the network operation era in many big cities such as the north of Guangzhou-Shenzhen and so on. All the time, scholars at home and abroad have been focusing on the subject. The analysis and identification of urban rail transit safety problems is a large-scale, multi-index, complex system engineering, is a collection of macro and micro, static and dynamic, set qualitative and quantitative analysis work. The depth and breadth of its work will directly affect the position of urban rail transit in the urban comprehensive transportation system, so the research of this subject is of great significance. Under this background, on the basis of the domestic and foreign existing research comments, this paper explicitly puts forward the question of selecting the indexes in the static comprehensive evaluation of urban rail transit safety. The weight determination problem and the problem of graphical evolution and quantitative analysis in the dynamic comprehensive research are the focus of this study. Secondly, through the statistical analysis of 78 foreign rail transit accidents and 859 domestic rail traffic accidents, According to the type distribution of the accident, the occurrence time of the accident, the occurrence space of the accident, the grade distribution of the accident, the delay distribution of the accident and the characteristics of the network passenger flow, the causes of the accident are explained and explained systematically. On the basis of the study of accident statistical representation, using the method of system safety analysis, from the personnel factors, facilities and equipment factors, environmental factors, management factors, This paper analyzes the main factors that affect the static safety of urban rail transit from five angles of network operation factors, and puts forward the conceptual index system and the selected index system which includes 5 first-grade indexes, 21 second-class indexes and 15 third-level indexes. Combining the matter-element extension model, which can represent more differentiated information, and the entropy weight method, which can be weighted objectively according to the index difference degree, a static comprehensive evaluation model of urban rail transit safety is constructed based on the entropy weight-extension matter-element model. Taking the 4- Daxing Line of Beijing Metro as an example, the rationality and validity of the model are proved by comparing the actual operation results with the results of the model calculation. Finally, considering the shortcomings of static model for typical accidents, the research is too macro and the pertinence is not strong. This paper introduces a cause-consequence analysis method, which can analyze the probability of top event and reflect the dynamic deduction of event tree at time level by using accident tree, and constructs the dynamic perception model of rail transit accident based on CCA model. This paper selects the special phenomenon of motor overheating to cause fire as the breakthrough point, and uses the form of causality analysis diagram and the calculation method of reliability to realize the quantitative analysis of the accident evolution process. The results show that the most efficient end point of motor overheating fire accident in time level is the automatic fire extinguishing stage and the success of fire extinguishing by the operator is very important to the fire spreading degree. The validity of the model is demonstrated.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：U298

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