基于Petri网的船舶应急指挥控制系统设计

发布时间：2018-06-26 21:34

本文选题：船舶应急指挥 + GSPN　；参考：《浙江大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：船舶应急事故指挥、决策和调度问题是目前海事研究的一个热点。从控制角度看,该问题属于系统科学的范畴。本论文将相互影响、相互作用的船舶设备、人、事件当作一个有机交互的系统,以Petri网为工具,对其进行模型研究和设计,以期有效地提高海上应急事故的处理能力,减少人为决策失误引起的海上事故。本文首先介绍了Petri网的理论基础和船舶应急指挥控制系统(ECSS)的概念,在此基础上采用Petri网子类——广义随机Petri网(GSPN)对系统建模并进行开环系统的性能分析。为解决初始模型存在的死锁和资源竞争等问题,通过引入有限容量库所和抑制弧等结构对模型进行改进并得到了闭环系统。基于PIPE软件的仿真结果表明,模型能较好地描述真实物理系统,可为海事部门的应急指挥决策提供参考。然后,本文基于ECSS模型分析的结论,从失误链的角度深入剖析了人为决策失误的原因。针对人为决策失误问题,首次将“综合权重”和“正交投影法”结合起来用以改进TOPSIS (Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solution)算法并成功将其应用到船舶应急决策模型。通过一个船舶碰撞应急实例的仿真证明：该决策方法不仅能够预防人为决策失误,而且提高了计算机辅助决策的实时性,具有较好的评价和决策效果,实现了ECSS系统设计的最初目标。最后,在总结全文的基础上,对船舶应急控制未来的研究进行了展望。
[Abstract]:Ship emergency command, decision-making and scheduling is a hot spot in maritime research. From the point of view of control, this problem belongs to the category of system science. In this paper, the interaction of ship equipment, people and events is regarded as an organic interactive system, and the Petri net is used as a tool to study and design the model, in order to effectively improve the handling capacity of marine emergency. Reduce accidents at sea caused by human error in decision making. In this paper, the theoretical basis of Petri net and the concept of ship emergency command and control system (ECSS) are introduced. Based on this, generalized stochastic Petri net (GSPN) is used to model the system and analyze the performance of open loop system. In order to solve the problems of deadlock and resource competition in the initial model, the closed-loop system is obtained by introducing the structure of finite capacity library and suppression arc. The simulation results based on pipe software show that the model can describe the real physical system well and can provide reference for the emergency command decision of maritime department. Then, based on the conclusion of ECSS model analysis, the causes of human error are analyzed from the point of view of fault chain. Aiming at the problem of human error in decision making, the method of "synthetic weight" and "orthogonal projection" is used to improve the TOPSIS (technique for order performance by Similarity to ideal solution) algorithm for the first time, and it is successfully applied to the ship emergency decision model. The simulation results of a ship collision emergency show that the method can not only prevent human error, but also improve the real-time performance of computer-aided decision, and has a good evaluation and decision effect. The initial goal of ECSS system design is realized. Finally, on the basis of summarizing the full text, the future research of ship emergency control is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.6

【参考文献】