基于承灾体的区域灾害风险及其评估研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 06:55

本文选题：区域 + 灾害风险　；参考：《大连理工大学》2015年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,国内外灾害频发,造成巨大的人员伤亡和财产损失,灾害发生的时间、区域和种类都具有极大的不确定性,亟需对区域灾害风险进行认识与评估,并在此基础上进行灾害的管理,有助于将灾害管理从事后被动的应对延伸至事前,为管理者认识风险和制定决策提供参考。灾害发生后,往往其发生区域范围广泛,缺乏区域应对灾害的历史数据,灾害后果也不再局限于单一事件,灾害风险具有很强的延展性与不确定性,因此需要从区域灾害形成及演化的机理出发,系统地研究区域灾害风险及其评估。本文则从灾害系统论的角度,基于承灾体分析区域灾害形成及演化的机理,研究区域灾害风险及其评估,认为区域灾害风险是致灾因子、区域承灾体暴露、区域承灾体脆弱性、区域承灾体关联及区域应急响应能力的综合作用,并以风险作用的结果即承灾体损失来反应区域灾害风险的动态性与不确定性。本文不仅对区域灾害风险的关键因素展开研究,还试图综合各因素,建立区域灾害风险评估模型,具体研究内容如下：首先,对区域、区域灾害系统及区域灾害风险及其评估的概念进行说明,并具体说明各要素的内涵,分析承灾体的关键作用,提出区域灾害风险及其评估的研究框架。其次,对区域承灾体暴露性指标进行分析,结合年鉴等统计数据,利用SOM网对区域承灾体暴露性进行聚类,得到区域暴露性相似性结果,从区域暴露性角度反应区域灾害风险相似性。然后,通过分析应急响应行动与区域灾害后果的关系,构建应急响应逻辑流程,作为预案评估的模版,利用计算流程相似性的方法得到区域发生某事件的预案有效性,作为区域应急响应能力的定量评估结果。最后,综合考虑区域灾害风险评估所需要考虑的各要素,构建承灾体状态网络模型,确定承灾体状态在各因素影响下的演化规则,并以承灾体各状态在不同阶段的分布反应区域灾害风险的动态性,通过仿真实验分析区域灾害风险及区域应急响应能力的效果,为区域制定应急响应策略提供参考。本文针对区域灾害风险及其评估的研究,使灾害风险及其评估更具针对性；并且从灾害系统论出发,以灾害发生与发展的机理为基础,明确承灾体的关键作用,确定区域灾害风险及其评估框架,为认识和评估区域灾害风险提供思路；同时,采取实证分析与系统仿真相结合的方法,为区域应对灾害事件提供参考依据。
[Abstract]:In recent years, frequent disasters at home and abroad, resulting in huge casualties and property losses, the time of disasters, regions and types of great uncertainty, it is urgent to recognize and assess the regional disaster risk. On this basis, disaster management is helpful to extend disaster management from passive response to prior management, and provide reference for managers to understand risks and make decisions. After disasters occur, they often occur in a wide range of areas, lack of historical data of regional response to disasters, disaster consequences are no longer limited to a single event, disaster risk has a strong ductility and uncertainty. Therefore, it is necessary to systematically study regional disaster risk and its assessment from the mechanism of formation and evolution of regional disasters. From the view of disaster system theory, based on the analysis of the mechanism of formation and evolution of regional disaster, this paper studies the regional disaster risk and its assessment, and concludes that regional disaster risk is the disaster causing factor, the exposure of regional disaster bearing body, and the vulnerability of regional disaster bearing body. The correlation of regional disaster bearing body and the comprehensive effect of regional emergency response ability, and the result of risk effect, that is, disaster bearing body loss, is used to reflect the dynamic and uncertainty of regional disaster risk. This paper not only studies the key factors of regional disaster risk, but also attempts to establish a regional disaster risk assessment model by synthesizing the factors. The specific research contents are as follows: first, to the region, The concept of regional disaster system and regional disaster risk and its assessment are explained, the connotation of each element is explained in detail, the key role of disaster bearing body is analyzed, and the research framework of regional disaster risk and its assessment is put forward. Secondly, the exposure index of regional disaster bearing body is analyzed, combined with the statistical data such as yearbook, using SOM net to cluster the exposure of regional disaster bearing body, the similarity result of regional exposure is obtained. The similarity of regional disaster risk is reflected from the angle of regional exposure. Then, by analyzing the relationship between emergency response action and regional disaster consequences, an emergency response logical process is constructed, which is used as a template for planning evaluation, and the effectiveness of an event in a region is obtained by using the method of calculating the similarity of process. As a quantitative assessment of regional emergency response capacity. Finally, considering all the factors that need to be considered in regional disaster risk assessment, the model of disaster bearing body state network is constructed, and the evolution rules of disaster bearing body state under the influence of various factors are determined. Based on the dynamic characteristics of regional disaster risk in different stages, the effects of regional disaster risk and regional emergency response ability are analyzed by simulation experiments, which provides a reference for regional emergency response strategy. This paper aims at the research of regional disaster risk and its assessment, makes the disaster risk and its assessment more targeted, and from the disaster system theory, based on the mechanism of disaster occurrence and development, clarifies the key role of disaster bearing body. Regional disaster risk and its assessment framework are determined to provide ideas for recognizing and evaluating regional disaster risk. At the same time, the method of combining empirical analysis with system simulation is adopted to provide reference for regional response to disaster events.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X4

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