基于博弈论的索马里海盗活动区域海军护航选择研究

发布时间：2018-07-05 09:14

本文选题：索马里海盗 + 海军护航　；参考：《大连海事大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来,世界范围内海盗活动不断加剧,索马里海盗袭击、劫持船舶事件不断发生,严重威胁全球海上贸易与海上通道安全。从当前情况来看,海军护航是保障海盗活动区域海上通道安全的主要手段,但由于海军护航能力有限,难以实现对所有海盗活动区域的护航覆盖。同时,随着海军护航行动的展开,海盗开始不断调整袭击策略以躲避海军对其的打击。因此,海军必须在有限护航能力的前提下,根据海盗活动的新特点来对护航区域进行调整,以达到护航效益的最大化。因此,本文希望通过对海军护航区域选择的优化来更好地保护海盗活动区域的过往船舶,维护海上通道安全。本文采用Stackelberg博弈模型对海军护航区域选择问题进行研究。首先,运用博弈论方法系统分析了海盗活动区域海军护航行动中海军与海盗的博弈关系。其次,在对海军和海盗两者决策行为分析的基础上,建立了一个包括海军和海盗双方在内的非合作非零和Stackelberg博弈,并将该问题描述为一个双层规划模型,上层模型为海军护航区域选择模型,下层为海盗攻击区域分配模型。针对该双层规划模型的特点,设计基于灵敏度分析的启发式算法(SAB)进行模型求解。最后,根据实际情况对模型中的参数进行估计,并以索马里海盗活动区域为例进行模型的实例计算,并得出了计算结果。本文的研究结果表明,模型可以预测海盗对护航区域设定的反应,在海军亚丁湾护航行动开始后,海盗更倾向于选择索马里区域和红海区域实施袭击。在现盗有护航力量情况下,海军应对海盗袭击最优的护航区域选择依然为亚丁湾。
[Abstract]:In recent years, piracy has been intensified in the world, Somali pirates have attacked and hijacked ships, which seriously threaten the global maritime trade and the safety of sea passage. From the current situation, naval escort is the main means to ensure the security of maritime passage in pirate area. However, due to the limited naval escort capacity, it is difficult to cover all pirate areas. At the same time, as naval escort began, pirates began to adjust their attack strategy to avoid the Navy's attack. Therefore, under the premise of limited escort capability, the navy must adjust the escort area according to the new characteristics of piracy, in order to maximize the efficiency of escort. Therefore, this paper hopes to optimize the selection of naval escort zone to better protect the past vessels in the pirate area and to maintain the safety of maritime passage. In this paper, Stackelberg game model is used to study the selection of naval escort zone. Firstly, game theory is used to analyze the game relationship between navy and pirates. Secondly, a non-cooperative non-zero and Stackelberg game is established based on the analysis of the decision behavior of both the navy and the pirate, and the problem is described as a bilevel programming model. The upper model is the naval escort zone selection model, the lower layer is the pirate attack area allocation model. According to the characteristics of the bilevel programming model, a heuristic algorithm (SAB) based on sensitivity analysis is designed to solve the model. Finally, the parameters of the model are estimated according to the actual situation, and the model examples are calculated by taking the Somali piracy area as an example, and the results are obtained. The results of this paper show that the model can predict the response of pirates to the convoys. After the naval escort operation in the Gulf of Aden, pirates tend to choose the Somali region and the Red Sea region to carry out attacks. In the presence of escort, the Navy's optimal escort for pirate attacks remains the Gulf of Aden.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U698.8

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