风险评价理论在下穿铁路施工项目中的应用研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 11:25

本文选题：风险管理 + 施工方案　；参考：《西南交通大学》2013年硕士论文

【摘要】：铁路是国民经济的大动脉,而铁路安全是铁路运输的生命线。随着城市化进程的不断加快,下穿铁路施工的项目越来越多,规模越来越大。如何在确保既有铁路的安全的前提下,保证工程的顺利实施,就成为一个难点。下穿工程施工环境复杂,所面临的不确定因素多,如果稍有不慎就可能导致铁路安全事故的发生。下穿既有铁路施工中的风险具有多样性和多层次性,本文针对下穿铁路施工的特点,结合风险管理的相关理论,建立定性与定量相结合的数学模型。应用在施工工法的选择及施工安全风险评价上,并提出风险控制措施。论文的主要内容包括以下几个方面： (1)站在铁路安全的角度,从下穿施工可能对铁路安全造成的影响入手,针对施工过程中安全风险源多,涉及面广的特点,识别出影响铁路安全的风险因素,从勘察设计风险、施工管理风险、环境因素风险等三个方面建立了下穿铁路施工过程中安全风险指标体系,运用层次分析法确定各因素相对于目标层的权重,利用模糊综合评价的方法,对项目安全进行评价,最终达到对风险进行规避的目的。 (2)下穿铁路施工,一般有盾构下穿、浅埋暗挖、管节顶进三种工法。本文针对下穿铁路施工的特点,利用层次分析法与综合评价变权分析结合的方法对三种方法的安全性进行分析,选择对铁路安全影响最小的施工方法。 (3)以北京市南水北调工程下穿京哈铁路为例,结合风险管理理论,确定在本项目中,盾构法施工对于铁路安全的影响最小。同时盾构法施工中的风险因素加以识别、估计,最终对本项目的风险程度进行评价。取得了良好的应用效果。
[Abstract]:Railway is the artery of national economy, and railway safety is the lifeline of railway transportation. With the development of urbanization, there are more and more projects under railway construction. How to ensure the safety of the existing railway and ensure the smooth implementation of the project has become a difficult point. The construction environment of underpass project is complex and the uncertain factors are many. If it is a little careless, it may lead to the occurrence of railway safety accident. The risks in the underpass existing railway construction are diversified and multi-layered. According to the characteristics of the underpass railway construction and the related theory of risk management, a mathematical model combining qualitative and quantitative analysis is established in this paper. It is applied to the selection of construction method and the risk evaluation of construction safety, and the risk control measures are put forward. The main contents of this paper include the following aspects: (1) from the point of view of railway safety, starting with the possible impact of underpass construction on railway safety, aiming at the characteristics of many safety risk sources and a wide range of aspects in the construction process, The risk factors affecting railway safety are identified, and the index system of safety risk is established from three aspects: survey and design risk, construction management risk and environmental risk. Using analytic hierarchy process to determine the weight of each factor relative to the target layer, using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the project safety, and finally achieve the purpose of avoiding the risk. Generally there are shield tunneling, shallow excavation, pipe node into three kinds of working methods. In this paper, according to the characteristics of the underpass railway construction, the safety of the three methods is analyzed by the combination of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and comprehensive evaluation variable weight analysis. Select the construction method that has the least influence on railway safety. (3) taking Beijing South-to-North Water transfer Project as an example, combined with risk management theory, it is determined that shield construction has the least impact on railway safety. At the same time, the risk factors in shield construction are identified and estimated, and the risk degree of the project is evaluated finally. Good results have been obtained.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U455.43;U298

【参考文献】