不确定情况下的危险品事故应急资源优化调度研究
发布时间：2018-07-29 18:21
【摘要】：近年来，危险品运输量急剧增长，与之相伴的运输事故也层出不穷，尤其是较大规模的危险品运输事故，给社会带来巨大的人员财产损失。2012年6月29日凌晨4时，广州沿江高速公路南岗段发生一起货车与装载溶剂油的油罐车追尾相撞的交通事故，造成20死亡、16人重伤、14人轻伤、1人八级伤残的严重后果，凸显了应急救援调度工作的重要性。 本文针对大规模危险品事故的应急资源调度问题展开了深入研究与讨论。危险品事故应急不同于自然灾害的救援工作，同一区域内行驶的危险品运输车辆数量巨大，任何地点均可能成为事故点。故危险品应急不单单要考虑救援时效性的问题，还要考虑系统的稳定性。文章采用层层深入、逐步深化的研究思路，按照单事故点、多资源→多事故点、多资源的研究路线，并从理想化的调度模型逐步深化过渡到考虑诸多现实因素的调度模型，最终完成从单个事故点的资源调度问题达到实现对同时发生两场以上事故、多种应急物资需要分配的应急资源调度问题。 文章在研究了广东省应急资源调度现状的基础上，首先针对单一事故点问题进行研究，从理想化的应急救援问题延伸到考虑道路拥堵、应急资源需求不确定性、决策者偏好等不确定因素的影响，最终建立了基于运输时间预测的鲁棒模糊优化模型。本文重点刻画了应急资源需求不确定情况下的应急资源调度问题，通过模糊优化降低了资源需求的不确定性，通过引入应急资源调度时间的鲁棒约束来实现调度决策的鲁棒性。 随后本文进一步深化，研究了多事故点问题，，分别建立了多事故问题的理想化调度模型与鲁棒模糊优化模型，针对多事故点中关键资源的分配提出了基于时间公平性和基于事故损失程度两种不同的分配原则。 文章最后对广深沿江高速“6.29”撞车溶剂油泄漏爆燃事故和番禺区南村镇化工厂爆炸事故两场现实案例，利用基于时间预测的鲁棒模糊优化模型，完成了对危险品应急资源的有效调度，并通过实际案例对各相关参数展开了讨论分析，提出了现实调度的建议。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the volume of dangerous goods transport has increased dramatically, and the accompanying accidents have emerged in endlessly, especially in the large scale of dangerous goods transportation accidents, which have brought huge loss of human and property to the society. On June 29, 2012, at 4: 00 a.m., A traffic accident occurred in the Nangang section of Guangzhou River Expressway in which a truck collided with a tanker loaded with solvent oil, resulting in 20 deaths, 16 serious injuries, 14 minor injuries and 1 grade 8 disability. It highlights the importance of emergency dispatch. In this paper, the problem of emergency resource scheduling for large-scale dangerous goods accidents is studied and discussed. The emergency of dangerous goods accidents is different from the rescue work of natural disasters. The number of dangerous goods transportation vehicles in the same area is huge, and any location may become the accident site. Therefore, the emergency of dangerous goods should not only consider the timeliness of rescue, but also the stability of the system. Based on the research route of single accident, multi-resource, multi-resource and multi-resource, the paper gradually deepens the model from idealized scheduling model to a scheduling model that takes many practical factors into account. Finally, from the resource scheduling problem of a single accident point to an emergency resource scheduling problem in which more than two accidents occur simultaneously and a variety of emergency materials need to be allocated. On the basis of studying the current situation of emergency resource scheduling in Guangdong Province, this paper firstly studies the problem of single accident point, which extends from the idealized emergency rescue problem to the consideration of road congestion and uncertainty of emergency resource demand. Finally, a robust fuzzy optimization model based on transportation time prediction is established because of the influence of uncertain factors such as decision makers' preference. In this paper, the emergency resource scheduling problem with uncertain emergency resource requirements is described, the uncertainty of resource demand is reduced by fuzzy optimization, and the robustness of scheduling decision is realized by introducing robust constraints of emergency resource scheduling time. Then this paper further deepens, studies the multi-accident point problem, establishes the idealized scheduling model and the robust fuzzy optimization model of the multi-accident problem, respectively. Two different allocation principles based on time fairness and accident loss degree are proposed for the allocation of critical resources in multi-accident points. In the end of the paper, two real cases, namely "6.29" car collision oil leakage and deflagration accident and Nancun chemical plant explosion accident in Guangzhou-Shenzhen high speed along the Yangtze River, are given, and the robust fuzzy optimization model based on time prediction is used. The effective scheduling of dangerous goods emergency resources is completed, and the relevant parameters are discussed and analyzed through practical cases, and the practical scheduling suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8;U492.336.3
本文编号：2153597
[Abstract]:In recent years, the volume of dangerous goods transport has increased dramatically, and the accompanying accidents have emerged in endlessly, especially in the large scale of dangerous goods transportation accidents, which have brought huge loss of human and property to the society. On June 29, 2012, at 4: 00 a.m., A traffic accident occurred in the Nangang section of Guangzhou River Expressway in which a truck collided with a tanker loaded with solvent oil, resulting in 20 deaths, 16 serious injuries, 14 minor injuries and 1 grade 8 disability. It highlights the importance of emergency dispatch. In this paper, the problem of emergency resource scheduling for large-scale dangerous goods accidents is studied and discussed. The emergency of dangerous goods accidents is different from the rescue work of natural disasters. The number of dangerous goods transportation vehicles in the same area is huge, and any location may become the accident site. Therefore, the emergency of dangerous goods should not only consider the timeliness of rescue, but also the stability of the system. Based on the research route of single accident, multi-resource, multi-resource and multi-resource, the paper gradually deepens the model from idealized scheduling model to a scheduling model that takes many practical factors into account. Finally, from the resource scheduling problem of a single accident point to an emergency resource scheduling problem in which more than two accidents occur simultaneously and a variety of emergency materials need to be allocated. On the basis of studying the current situation of emergency resource scheduling in Guangdong Province, this paper firstly studies the problem of single accident point, which extends from the idealized emergency rescue problem to the consideration of road congestion and uncertainty of emergency resource demand. Finally, a robust fuzzy optimization model based on transportation time prediction is established because of the influence of uncertain factors such as decision makers' preference. In this paper, the emergency resource scheduling problem with uncertain emergency resource requirements is described, the uncertainty of resource demand is reduced by fuzzy optimization, and the robustness of scheduling decision is realized by introducing robust constraints of emergency resource scheduling time. Then this paper further deepens, studies the multi-accident point problem, establishes the idealized scheduling model and the robust fuzzy optimization model of the multi-accident problem, respectively. Two different allocation principles based on time fairness and accident loss degree are proposed for the allocation of critical resources in multi-accident points. In the end of the paper, two real cases, namely "6.29" car collision oil leakage and deflagration accident and Nancun chemical plant explosion accident in Guangzhou-Shenzhen high speed along the Yangtze River, are given, and the robust fuzzy optimization model based on time prediction is used. The effective scheduling of dangerous goods emergency resources is completed, and the relevant parameters are discussed and analyzed through practical cases, and the practical scheduling suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：华南理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8;U492.336.3
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