Chebyshev不等式在空间碎片碰撞概率置信度中的应用
发布时间：2018-08-07 18:36
【摘要】：空间碎片的碰撞预警与规避能有效避免碰撞事件的发生.碰撞概率是碰撞预警的主要判据,也是航天器规避机动决策的主要依据.由于计算碰撞概率的各相关参数带有误差,导致计算得到的碰撞概率值并不准确,难以做出规避机动决策,因此评估碰撞概率值的可信程度是亟需解决的问题.本文给出了一种碰撞概率置信度的计算方法,利用各影响参数的标准差,通过误差传递的方法计算碰撞概率的标准差,结合单边Chebyshev不等式,给出碰撞概率值大于10~(-4)阈值时的置信度,并结合实际案例进行了分析.
[Abstract]:Collision warning and avoidance of space debris can effectively avoid collision events. Collision probability is the main criterion of collision early warning and the main basis of spacecraft maneuver decision. Due to the errors in the relative parameters of calculating the collision probability, the calculated collision probability values are not accurate, so it is difficult to make the decision to avoid maneuvering. Therefore, it is urgent to solve the problem of evaluating the reliability of the collision probability values. In this paper, a method of calculating the confidence of collision probability is presented. The standard deviation of collision probability is calculated by the error transfer method using the standard deviation of each influence parameter, and the one-sided Chebyshev inequality is combined. The confidence degree when the probability value of collision is greater than 10 ~ (-4) threshold is given, and the actual case is analyzed.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院国家天文台;中国科学院大学;
【分类号】：V528
[Abstract]:Collision warning and avoidance of space debris can effectively avoid collision events. Collision probability is the main criterion of collision early warning and the main basis of spacecraft maneuver decision. Due to the errors in the relative parameters of calculating the collision probability, the calculated collision probability values are not accurate, so it is difficult to make the decision to avoid maneuvering. Therefore, it is urgent to solve the problem of evaluating the reliability of the collision probability values. In this paper, a method of calculating the confidence of collision probability is presented. The standard deviation of collision probability is calculated by the error transfer method using the standard deviation of each influence parameter, and the one-sided Chebyshev inequality is combined. The confidence degree when the probability value of collision is greater than 10 ~ (-4) threshold is given, and the actual case is analyzed.
【作者单位】： 中国科学院国家天文台;中国科学院大学;
【分类号】：V528
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