基于随机点模拟方法分析空间目标危险交会

发布时间：2018-08-11 13:50

【摘要】：基于SGP4模型在空间目标轨道预报中的应用,在预报的位置速度信息和误差信息基础上,提出一种空间两目标碰撞预警的分析方法,即随机点模拟方法.与传统的交会平面积分方法相比,其主要有两点不同:一是在误差信息中考虑了误差均值的影响,即误差椭球不再以预报位置为中心分布;二是在分析方法上侧重于真实模拟可能的交会情形,而不忽略任一方向上的误差.通过算例分析验证了该方法的可行性,结果表明误差均值的非零性使得最大碰撞概率不一定出现在预报的最近交会距离时刻.同时仿真结果还表明,两目标在相对速度方向上的相对位置仍然存在误差,这可能造成随机点模拟的碰撞概率计算值较交会平面积分方法偏小.不同的碰撞预警分析方法对应不同的预警门限,根据文中实例,初步确定10~(-6)为随机点模拟方法的红色预警值.
[Abstract]:Based on the application of SGP4 model in orbit prediction of space targets and on the basis of the position velocity information and error information of the prediction, a method for analyzing collision early warning of space two targets is proposed, that is, random point simulation method. Compared with the traditional intersecting plane integral method, there are two main differences: first, the error mean value is taken into account in the error information, that is, the error ellipsoid is no longer centered on the prediction position; Second, the analytical method focuses on the real simulation of the possible rendezvous, without neglecting the errors in either direction. The feasibility of the method is verified by an example. The results show that the maximum collision probability does not necessarily occur at the predicted nearest intersection distance due to the non-zero error mean. The simulation results also show that there are still errors in the relative position of the two targets in the direction of relative velocity, which may result in the collision probability of the random point simulation being smaller than that of the intersection plane integral method. Different collision early warning methods correspond to different early warning thresholds. According to the examples in this paper, 10 ~ (-6) is preliminarily determined as the red early warning value of random point simulation method.
【作者单位】：南京信息工程大学空间天气研究所;中国气象局国家卫星气象中心;
【基金】：宇航动力学国家重点实验室开放基金项目资助
【分类号】：V528

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