基于事故树的船舶避台失败原因分析

发布时间：2018-08-18 11:46

【摘要】：热带气旋是船舶航行中常见的灾害性天气系统,它产生于热带海域对船舶安全航行有着极大的影响。热带气旋通常结构为涡旋状,会给受到它影响的地方带来狂风暴雨。同时它影响范围广,常常侵入亚热带地区,给区域内船舶航行造成极大的危胁。为了减小船舶遇热带气旋发生船毁人亡的概率,本文利用事故树对几起船舶避台失败的典型案例进行研究。针对船舶避台航行时不同时刻的航向、航速、船位、决策等信息得出船舶避台时的真实航线。依据台风年鉴中相关热带气旋的气象信息及船舶当时收集的气象分析图和预报图,得到热带气旋预报和实际时刻的位置、移向、移速、最大风力等信息,根据这些信息画出台风的预报轨迹与真实轨迹。将船舶航线与台风轨迹放在一起,结合不同时刻的驾驶员决策和天气等因素进行分析,得出事故因子,进行事故树分析。基于事故树模型分析结果,得出导致船舶避台失败的主要原因,总体可以归纳为人为因素、船舶因素和环境因素三个方面。人为因素是造成船舶避台失败的核心因素,主要包括船员自身素质、船员的气象知识、航行经验、工作环境及管理水平等。船舶因素也是船舶避台失败的重要因素,包括船龄老化、收集气象资料能力差、船体强度不够等。环境因素是指台风的反向运动、风力突然增加等。通过对船舶避台失败原因的研究,相应地从以下几个方面提出解决问题的建议,包括从船员资格、船员业务水平和船员工作时的责任心等几个方面展开解决人为因素问题;从加强对船舶安全检查,老旧船舶监督管理,船公司安全管理体系几个方面展开解决船舶因素问题;从完善助航服务,为船舶提供必要的航行信息和台风反向移动对策等几个方面展开解决环境因素问题。最后制定应急预案来降低船舶避台可能遭遇的各种风险。
[Abstract]:Tropical cyclone is a common disastrous weather system in ship navigation. It is produced in tropical waters and has great influence on the safe navigation of ships. Tropical cyclones usually have a vortex structure, which can bring heavy rain and wind to the place affected by tropical cyclones. At the same time, it has a wide range of influence and often intrudes into subtropical regions, which poses a great threat to the navigation of ships in the region. In order to reduce the probability of shipwrecking caused by tropical cyclone, this paper studies several typical cases of ship avoiding failure by using accident tree. According to the course, speed, position and decision of the ship at different times, the true course of the ship avoiding is obtained. According to the meteorological information of the tropical cyclone in the typhoon yearbook and the meteorological analysis and forecast charts collected by the ship at that time, the information of the tropical cyclone forecast and the position of the actual time, the moving direction, the moving speed, the maximum wind force and so on are obtained. According to these information, the forecast track and real track of typhoon are drawn. The ship route and typhoon track are put together, combined with the factors of driver decision and weather at different times, the accident factors are obtained and the accident tree is analyzed. Based on the analysis results of accident tree model, the main reasons leading to the failure of ship avoidance are obtained, which can be summed up as human factors, ship factors and environmental factors. Human factors are the core factors causing the failure of ship avoidance, including the crew's own quality, crew's meteorological knowledge, navigation experience, working environment and management level and so on. Ship factor is also an important factor of ship avoiding failure, including aging of ship age, poor capacity of collecting meteorological data, insufficient strength of ship hull, etc. Environmental factors refer to the reverse movement of typhoons, sudden increase in wind force, etc. Based on the study of the reasons for the failure of ship avoidance, the author puts forward some suggestions for solving the problem from the following aspects, including the qualification of crew, the level of crew business and the responsibility of crew working, and so on. From the aspects of strengthening ship safety inspection, old ship supervision and management, shipping company safety management system to solve the problems of ship factors, from the improvement of navigation services, This paper provides necessary navigation information for ships and counter measures of typhoon reverse movement to solve environmental problems. Finally, a contingency plan is made to reduce the risks that ships may encounter.
【学位授予单位】：大连海事大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U698.6

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