自然灾害冲击的应对机制选择：理论与中国经验证据

发布时间：2018-08-18 13:33

【摘要】：伴随着人类社会发展,自然灾害对经济社会造成的影响越发严重。从灾害应对的实践出发和政治经济学理论出发,自然灾害应对机制的选择应该注意哪些问题?在中国,到底何种灾害应对机制才是更有效的?中国的自然灾害应对长期处于政府主导,市场缺位的状态,到了近现代社会,灾害应对的市场机制才逐渐发展起来。政府救助和市场机制在灾害应对中的地位、作用却取决于政府、居民和企业之间的利益关系变化,经济主体应对灾害的行为背后是不同制度背景下的利益激励问题。从这一利益关系角度出发,政府、居民和企业表现出差异化的行为选择,最终导致不同应对机制呈现出差异化的效果。因此,从政治经济学理论角度上来看,在考虑中国灾害应对机制选择时,必须要分析政府、居民和企业在这一机制中的利益关系,从利益激励的角度出发,通过政府与市场相结合完善中国的灾害应对制度体系。从中国灾害应对的实践出发,首先,本文以汶川地震为例,利用四川省181个县级行政面板2003-2013年面板数据,运用双重差分和PSM-DID方法研究了汶川地震后国家救助对灾区经济发展和居民收入的影响。结果发现,政府灾害救助可以通过提高受灾地固定资产投资、工业化、城市化等途径促进区域经济短期增长,但在人力资本积累、制度环境建设等方面表现乏力。特别是,国家救助的正向作用会伴随着财政支持政策的结束而快速消失,国家灾害救助缺乏“造血功能”。关于市场化机制的作用,本文基于中国普遍存在的农业灾害,通过构造省级市场化指数,利用HP滤波方法分析了市场化水平不断提升的背景下,农业灾害对农村居民收入与消费波动的影响,结果发现市场化水平的提升能够通过改善农民收入等途径平滑农业灾害带来的消费波动,有助于农村居民消费水平提升。本文通过理论分析提出完善中国灾害应对机制的着眼点在于通过激励机制实现行为主体灾害应对中的利益协调。结合中国当前灾害应对实践,本文分别实证研究了政府主导的国家救助和市场机制的作用。从灾害损失最小化的目标出发,本文能够给出的政策指引在于:在继续加大国家灾害救助体系建设的同时,要注重救助方式的转变及其对受助地长期发展的影响,将国家救助与市场机制相结合,形成政府与市场相互支撑的自然灾害应对机制。
[Abstract]:With the development of human society, the impact of natural disasters on economic and social is becoming more and more serious. Starting from the practice of disaster response and the theory of political economy, what problems should be paid attention to in the selection of natural disaster response mechanism? What kind of disaster response mechanism is more effective in China? China's natural disaster response has been dominated by the government for a long time, and the market mechanism of disaster response has developed gradually in modern society. The role of government rescue and market mechanism in disaster response depends on the change of interest relationship among government, residents and enterprises. From the angle of this interest relationship, the government, residents and enterprises show different behavior choices, which leads to different coping mechanisms showing different effects. Therefore, from the point of view of political economics theory, when considering the choice of disaster response mechanism in China, we must analyze the interests of the government, residents and enterprises in this mechanism, and start from the angle of interest incentive. Perfect China's disaster response system through the combination of government and market. Based on the practice of disaster response in China, first of all, taking Wenchuan earthquake as an example, this paper makes use of the panel data of 181 county administrative panels in Sichuan Province from 2003 to 2013. The double difference method and PSM-DID method are used to study the effects of state aid on the economic development and residents' income in the disaster areas after the Wenchuan earthquake. The results show that government disaster relief can promote the short-term growth of regional economy by increasing fixed assets investment, industrialization, urbanization and so on, but it is weak in the aspects of human capital accumulation and institutional environment construction. In particular, the positive role of state aid will disappear rapidly with the end of the financial support policy, and the national disaster relief lacks the "hematopoietic function". On the role of marketization mechanism, based on the widespread agricultural disasters in China, by constructing provincial marketization index and using HP filtering method, this paper analyzes the background of the increasing level of marketization. The effect of agricultural disasters on the fluctuation of rural residents' income and consumption is found out that the improvement of market-oriented level can smooth the fluctuation of consumption brought by agricultural disasters through improving farmers' income and help to improve the consumption level of rural residents. Through theoretical analysis, this paper puts forward that the focus of perfecting the disaster response mechanism in China is to realize the coordination of interests in the disaster response of the behavioral subject through the incentive mechanism. Combined with China's current disaster response practice, this paper empirically studies the role of government-led national rescue and market mechanism. Starting from the goal of minimizing disaster losses, the policy guidance that this paper can give lies in: while continuing to increase the construction of national disaster relief system, we should pay attention to the transformation of relief mode and its impact on the long-term development of the recipient land. Combining the state rescue with the market mechanism, the government and the market support each other in natural disaster response mechanism.
【学位授予单位】：西北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：X43

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