事故系统风险涌现与传递的形式化描述
发布时间：2018-08-24 20:01
【摘要】：为有效预防涉及复杂系统的灾难性事故,揭示复杂系统一般性事故规律,提出有效的风险控制对策,通过构建与复杂系统相映射的事故系统模型。考虑事故系统的风险动态演化特性,探究复杂系统风险控制新途径。从致因节点输入输出有界和风险熵阈值突破2个角度,给出节点风险涌现的形式化描述。基于耦合同步观点,提出事故涌现的描述方法。引入风险增长速度、外界控制资源和耦合参数等变量。构建事故系统单节点和双节点的风险传递模型。结果表明,为预防事故,应杜绝风险涌现的耦合同步,减小风险增长速度和适量增加外界控制资源,减缓风险传递效应。
[Abstract]:In order to effectively prevent catastrophic accidents involving complex systems and reveal the general accident rules of complex systems, effective risk control countermeasures are put forward, and an accident system model mapped to complex systems is constructed. Considering the dynamic evolution of risk in accident systems, a new approach to risk control of complex systems is explored. The formal description of node risk emergence is given from the point of view of the bounded input-output of causative node and the breakthrough of the threshold of risk entropy. Based on the view of coupling synchronization, a description method of accident emergence is proposed. Introducing risk growth rate, external control of resources and coupling parameters and other variables. The risk transfer model of single node and double node of accident system is constructed. The results show that in order to prevent accidents, the coupling synchronization of risk emergence should be eliminated, the risk growth rate should be reduced, the external control resources should be increased and the risk transfer effect should be mitigated.
【作者单位】： 武警工程大学装备工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(71401179) 武警工程大学基础研究基金资助(WJY201608,WJY201410)
【分类号】：X928
本文编号：2201879
[Abstract]:In order to effectively prevent catastrophic accidents involving complex systems and reveal the general accident rules of complex systems, effective risk control countermeasures are put forward, and an accident system model mapped to complex systems is constructed. Considering the dynamic evolution of risk in accident systems, a new approach to risk control of complex systems is explored. The formal description of node risk emergence is given from the point of view of the bounded input-output of causative node and the breakthrough of the threshold of risk entropy. Based on the view of coupling synchronization, a description method of accident emergence is proposed. Introducing risk growth rate, external control of resources and coupling parameters and other variables. The risk transfer model of single node and double node of accident system is constructed. The results show that in order to prevent accidents, the coupling synchronization of risk emergence should be eliminated, the risk growth rate should be reduced, the external control resources should be increased and the risk transfer effect should be mitigated.
【作者单位】： 武警工程大学装备工程学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金资助(71401179) 武警工程大学基础研究基金资助(WJY201608,WJY201410)
【分类号】：X928
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