基于相似证据理论的FTA模型研究与应用
发布时间：2018-09-03 20:12
【摘要】：事故树分析方法是安全评价中广泛应用的方法，但是，如何评估基本事件概率发生范围一直是定量分析上的难点，传统事故树分析过分依赖统计数据，也制约着事故树分析方法的发展。 为了对事故树分析中的多位专家意见信息进行有效融合，本文提出一种基于相似度分析的事故树分析模型。首先，，引入数据融合中的相似性的概念，用来分析多个专家意见之间的相似度，并依据分析结果给每位专家的意见分配可信度权值。然后，利用证据理论对专家意见进行合成，预测系统事故发生概率，并对引起顶事件发生的基本事件的重要度进行判定。最后，建立针对某钢铁集团煤气柜爆炸的事故树定量分析模型，得出顶事件发生概率，并找出导致事故发生的最危险路径，为管理者制定有针对性的措施提供参考依据。 在本文的结尾处对全文的研究工作进行了总结，对未来的研究方向提出了工作重心，并且指出了本文所编制的煤气柜爆炸事故树有待改进的地方，以及证据理论算法的深入研究的必要性。最后本文对未来在证据理论算法和事故树定量分析结合的研究方向进行了展望。
[Abstract]:Accident tree analysis is a widely used method in safety evaluation. However, how to evaluate the probability range of basic events is always a difficult point in quantitative analysis. Traditional accident tree analysis relies too much on statistical data. It also restricts the development of accident tree analysis method. In order to effectively fuse the multi-expert opinion information in accident tree analysis, a fault tree analysis model based on similarity analysis is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the concept of similarity in data fusion is introduced to analyze the similarity between several expert opinions, and each expert's opinion is assigned credibility weight according to the analysis results. Then, the expert opinion is synthesized by using the evidence theory to predict the probability of the system accident, and the importance of the basic event that causes the top event is determined. Finally, a quantitative analysis model of accident tree for explosion of gas tank of a certain iron and steel group is established, and the probability of top event is obtained, and the most dangerous path leading to the accident is found out, which provides a reference for managers to formulate targeted measures. At the end of this paper, the research work of the full text is summarized, the focus of the future research is put forward, and the place that the gas tank explosion accident tree compiled in this paper needs to be improved is pointed out. And the necessity of further research on evidence theory algorithm. Finally, the research direction of combining evidence theory algorithm and accident tree quantitative analysis in the future is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：武汉科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TQ086;TQ547.91
本文编号：2221049
[Abstract]:Accident tree analysis is a widely used method in safety evaluation. However, how to evaluate the probability range of basic events is always a difficult point in quantitative analysis. Traditional accident tree analysis relies too much on statistical data. It also restricts the development of accident tree analysis method. In order to effectively fuse the multi-expert opinion information in accident tree analysis, a fault tree analysis model based on similarity analysis is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the concept of similarity in data fusion is introduced to analyze the similarity between several expert opinions, and each expert's opinion is assigned credibility weight according to the analysis results. Then, the expert opinion is synthesized by using the evidence theory to predict the probability of the system accident, and the importance of the basic event that causes the top event is determined. Finally, a quantitative analysis model of accident tree for explosion of gas tank of a certain iron and steel group is established, and the probability of top event is obtained, and the most dangerous path leading to the accident is found out, which provides a reference for managers to formulate targeted measures. At the end of this paper, the research work of the full text is summarized, the focus of the future research is put forward, and the place that the gas tank explosion accident tree compiled in this paper needs to be improved is pointed out. And the necessity of further research on evidence theory algorithm. Finally, the research direction of combining evidence theory algorithm and accident tree quantitative analysis in the future is prospected.
【学位授予单位】：武汉科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：TQ086;TQ547.91
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 王明文,吴根秀,孙永强;相关证据合成方法[J];江西师范大学学报(自然科学版);2002年02期
2 刘水文;陈东春;贺耀宜;陈小林;;基于梯形模糊理论的冒顶事故树定量分析[J];工业安全与环保;2013年01期
3 蔡明;张兆宁;王莉莉;;基于模糊事故树分析法的飞行碰撞风险研究[J];航空计算技术;2011年03期
4 宋福龙;罗毅;涂光瑜;罗金山;;基于事故树分析法的电力系统事故链监控研究[J];继电器;2006年02期
5 李艳霞;孙建华;魏春荣;姜天文;;事故树结构重要度求解方法研究探讨[J];中国安全生产科学技术;2012年05期
6 危中良;林敏;;干式煤气柜技术在国内的应用发展[J];南方金属;2009年04期
7 ;专家名片[J];环境保护;2013年02期
8 冯庚;张楠;陈猛志;朱凯;崔伟杰;;事故树分析与贝叶斯网络重要度在溃坝风险分析中的应用[J];水电能源科学;2013年04期
9 景国勋,贾智伟,段振伟,张强;最小割集在系统安全分析方法中的应用[J];中国安全科学学报;2004年05期
10 于庭安;戴兴国;;LNG储罐火灾和爆炸事故树分析[J];中国安全科学学报;2007年08期
本文编号：2221049
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/kejilunwen/anquangongcheng/2221049.html
