宏观安全生产系统的动力学建模、仿真及预警研究

发布时间：2018-09-11 14:39

【摘要】：随着经济社会的发展，我国安全生产趋势逐渐好转，但与发达国家相比，形势依然严峻。本文首先分析了事故指标与经济社会系统多因素的非线性相关关系，探索多因素间协调发展机理，其次，基于系统动力学建立了全国及煤矿行业宏观安全生产系统模型；再次，对模型进行了仿真及预警研究，其结果对协调安全生产与经济社会多方面关系，制定合理的宏观干预政策，最终实现“安全发展”的理念有重要的意义。论文主要内容及创新点如下： (1)将系统动力学理论引入宏观安全生产预测预警研究领域，既为宏观安全生产理论的实践提供了技术路径，又确定了宏观安全生产系统与经济、社会协调发展的研究思路。 (2)采用系统动力学理论对宏观安全生产规律开展研究。揭示了系统动力学理论与安全流变-突变理论，生命周期理论，安全生产库兹涅茨曲线，安全生产阶段发展理论之间的相关关系，，分析结果表明系统动力学方法可以很好地解释其他理论。 (3)构建了区域安全生产系统的预警指标体系和煤矿行业安全生产系统的预警指标体系。通过分析全国和煤矿事故指标和影响因素指标的时间序列图，研究了各变量的发展趋势及周期波动规律。通过对全国及煤矿事故指标和影响因素指标的散点图分析，揭示出指标间的非线性相关关系。 (4)建立了区域和行业的安全生产与经济、协调发展的动力学模型；重点通过框图分析、基模分析、因果模型深入分析了安全生产与经济社会影响因素之间的非线性相关关系及反馈传导机制；提出了状态预警和趋势预警的概念和方法。采用环比指数方法计算趋势预警指数，并根据平均值和三倍标准差确定了预警警限值。 (5)对全国及煤矿行业安全生产趋势进行了仿真预警研究。首先，建立了全国及煤矿安全生产系统与经济协调发展的流图模型；其次，应用建立的模型进行了政策干预仿真分析，得出了全国及煤矿行业安全生产的预测规律，即事故指标对某些关键影响因素指标的改变敏感性较强；再次，应用二次指数法和平均降低率法对事故统计指标进行了短期预测，结果表明我国及煤矿行业安全生产“十二五”规划目标已经提前实现；最后，根据建立的预警模型及预测结果对预警指标进行了预警分析，表明在经济、社会因素、宏观安全干预政策基本不变的条件下，未来1-3年全国事故指标将处于无警状态，煤矿事故指标处于轻警状态，即煤矿事故指标的降低速率慢于前10年的平均水平。此外，针对对“十二五”规划中2020年十万人事故死亡率目标，提出了对事故统计指标的改进建议。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy and society, the trend of production safety in China is getting better, but compared with the developed countries, the situation is still grim. This paper first analyzes the nonlinear correlation between the accident index and the economic and social system, explores the coordinated development mechanism between the multiple factors, and then, based on the system dynamics, establishes the national and coal mine macro-safety production system model. The simulation and early warning of the model are carried out. The results are of great significance to coordinate the relationship between safety production and economy and society, to formulate reasonable macro intervention policies and to realize the concept of "safe development". The main contents and innovations of this paper are as follows: (1) introducing the theory of system dynamics into the field of prediction and early warning of macro-safety production provides a technical path for the practice of macro-safety production theory. In addition, the research ideas of coordinated development of macro-safety production system, economy and society are determined. (2) the law of macro-safety production is studied by using the theory of system dynamics. The correlation between system dynamics theory and safety rheological catastrophe theory, life cycle theory, safety production Kuznets curve and development theory of safe production stage is revealed. The results show that the system dynamics method can explain other theories well. (3) the early warning index system of regional production safety system and the early warning index system of coal mine production safety system are constructed. By analyzing the time series diagram of national and coal mine accident index and influencing factor index, the development trend and periodic fluctuation law of each variable are studied. Based on the scattered plot analysis of national and coal mine accident index and influencing factor index, the nonlinear correlation between the indexes is revealed. (4) the dynamic model of regional and industry safety production and economy and coordinated development is established. Through block diagram analysis, basic model analysis and causality model, the nonlinear correlation and feedback transmission mechanism between safety production and economic and social factors are analyzed, and the concepts and methods of state early warning and trend warning are put forward. The ring index method is used to calculate the trend warning index, and the warning limit value is determined according to the average value and three times standard deviation. (5) A simulation study on the trend of production safety in the whole country and in the coal mine industry is carried out. Firstly, the flow chart model of the coordinated development of national and coal mine safety production system and economy is established; secondly, the simulation analysis of policy intervention is carried out by using the established model, and the prediction law of safety production in the whole country and coal mine industry is obtained. That is, the accident index is more sensitive to the change of some key influencing factors. Thirdly, the method of quadratic index and average reduction rate is used to predict the statistical index of accident in the short term. The results show that the "12th Five-Year Plan" goal of safety production in our country and coal mine industry has been realized in advance. Finally, according to the established early warning model and forecast result, the early warning index is analyzed, which indicates that the economic and social factors, Under the condition that the macro safety intervention policy is basically unchanged, the national accident index will be in the state of no alarm in the coming 1-3 years, and the coal mine accident index will be in the state of light warning, that is, the decreasing rate of the coal mine accident index will be slower than the average level of the previous 10 years. In addition, aiming at the target of accident mortality of 100,000 people in the 12th Five-Year Plan by 2020, the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the statistical index of accidents.
【学位授予单位】：北京理工大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：X913

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