贝叶斯网络下的高速公路交通突发事件态势评估研究
发布时间：2018-09-15 06:54
【摘要】：随着高速公路通车里程的不断增加，我国高速公路交通行业也进入了突发事件的上升期和高发期，各种交通突发事件造成的社会影响日益严重。为了应对高速公路交通突发事件，全国各地交通主管部门制定了相应的应急预案，但由于对已发生的交通突发事件缺乏必要的评估，很多预案在准确性和可操作性上存在问题。因此，如何有效的对交通突发事件进行态势评估，制定合理的应急对策，是处理好突发事件的关键。 本文在分析了态势评估实现技术的基础上，通过对各种方法优缺点的比较，确定了采用分层贝叶斯网络作为高速公路交通突发事件态势评估的研究方法。在贝叶斯网络模型的构建中，从高速公路交通突发事件类型、致灾因素和演化机理等特性入手，结合贝叶斯网络特征，采用D-S证据理论、联合树等方法构建适用于高速公共路交通突发事件的态势评估模型，并以运输生产事故为例对模型进行验证。 本文的主要研究工作及结论：（1）通过对高速公路交通突发事件类型、致灾因素和演化机理等特性的分析，，并结合态势评估的相关特征，研究态势评估概念在交通突发事件中的适用性。结果表明，态势评估概念可以应用在高速公路交通突发事件当中，并且对交通突发事件应急处置决策有较强的指导作用。（2）采用贝叶斯网络方法，构建了高速公路交通突发事件态势评估模型。通过对运输生产事故的应用表明，该模型能够较好的进行交通突发事件态势评估，在实际的应急处置过程中，具有一定的可行性。
[Abstract]:With the increasing mileage of freeway traffic, the expressway traffic industry in China has also entered the period of rising and high incidence of unexpected events, and the social impact caused by various traffic emergencies is becoming increasingly serious. In order to deal with highway traffic emergencies, traffic departments in various parts of the country have formulated corresponding emergency plans. However, due to the lack of necessary assessment of traffic emergencies that have occurred, many of them have problems in accuracy and maneuverability. Therefore, how to effectively evaluate the situation of traffic emergencies and formulate reasonable emergency countermeasures is the key to deal with emergencies. On the basis of analyzing the realization technology of situation assessment and comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various methods, this paper determines the research method of adopting hierarchical Bayesian network as the research method of highway traffic emergency situation assessment. In the construction of Bayesian network model, starting with the characteristics of highway traffic emergency type, disaster factors and evolution mechanism, combining the characteristics of Bayesian network, D-S evidence theory is adopted. The combined tree method is used to construct the situation assessment model for public road traffic emergencies in high speed, and the model is verified by taking the transportation accidents as an example. The main research work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) by analyzing the characteristics of expressway traffic emergency type, disaster factors and evolution mechanism, and combining the relevant characteristics of situation assessment, The applicability of the concept of situation assessment in traffic emergencies is studied. The results show that the concept of situation assessment can be used in expressway traffic emergencies, and has a strong guiding role in emergency decision. (2) Bayesian network method is used. The highway traffic emergency situation assessment model is constructed. The application of transportation production accident shows that the model can evaluate traffic emergency situation well, and it is feasible in the process of actual emergency treatment.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8
本文编号：2244103
[Abstract]:With the increasing mileage of freeway traffic, the expressway traffic industry in China has also entered the period of rising and high incidence of unexpected events, and the social impact caused by various traffic emergencies is becoming increasingly serious. In order to deal with highway traffic emergencies, traffic departments in various parts of the country have formulated corresponding emergency plans. However, due to the lack of necessary assessment of traffic emergencies that have occurred, many of them have problems in accuracy and maneuverability. Therefore, how to effectively evaluate the situation of traffic emergencies and formulate reasonable emergency countermeasures is the key to deal with emergencies. On the basis of analyzing the realization technology of situation assessment and comparing the advantages and disadvantages of various methods, this paper determines the research method of adopting hierarchical Bayesian network as the research method of highway traffic emergency situation assessment. In the construction of Bayesian network model, starting with the characteristics of highway traffic emergency type, disaster factors and evolution mechanism, combining the characteristics of Bayesian network, D-S evidence theory is adopted. The combined tree method is used to construct the situation assessment model for public road traffic emergencies in high speed, and the model is verified by taking the transportation accidents as an example. The main research work and conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) by analyzing the characteristics of expressway traffic emergency type, disaster factors and evolution mechanism, and combining the relevant characteristics of situation assessment, The applicability of the concept of situation assessment in traffic emergencies is studied. The results show that the concept of situation assessment can be used in expressway traffic emergencies, and has a strong guiding role in emergency decision. (2) Bayesian network method is used. The highway traffic emergency situation assessment model is constructed. The application of transportation production accident shows that the model can evaluate traffic emergency situation well, and it is feasible in the process of actual emergency treatment.
【学位授予单位】：长安大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8
【引证文献】
相关期刊论文 前1条
1 张兰芳;陈程;汪尚天;;高速公路重大突发事件影响评估系统设计[J];上海公路;2016年04期
相关硕士学位论文 前2条
1 刘志远;安全事故态势三维可视化系统的研究与实现[D];华北电力大学(北京);2016年
2 赵艳阳;区域干线公路网交通态势评估与分析[D];长安大学;2015年
本文编号：2244103
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