承压类特种设备社会风险预警方法及控制策略研究

发布时间：2018-10-09 08:04

【摘要】：承压类特种设备具有特殊的专业技术性和潜在的高危险性。承压类特种设备事故不仅可能导致惨重的人员伤亡,还会造成巨大的经济损失、不良的社会影响和环境问题。在当前设备数量快速增长,监管资源有限的大背景下,对承压类特种设备实施基于风险的监管,具有重要的意义。本文的主要研究成果如下:1)提出承压类特种设备基于风险的监管概念,构建了承压类特种设备社会风险的三维预警结构体系和预警流程,包括单项指标风险预警和社会风险综合预警两个部分。2)对承压类特种设备社会风险进行了科学定义,分析研究了承压类特种设备社会风险的演化机理,明确了承压类特种设备社会风险水平的高低受设备固有风险和承灾体脆弱性两个因素的影响,其中,承灾体包括人员、设备设施和环境。3)分别从设备固有风险和承灾体脆弱性两个维度对承压类特种设备社会风险的影响因素进行了系统辨识,并对各影响因素的含义做了详细说明。4)结合影响因素辨识结果,构建了“2大类—29个指标”的承压类特种设备社会风险预警指标体系,确定了指标权重,并对各预警指标进行了无量纲化处理,确定了各预警指标的评估函数和评估标准。5)分别构建了承压类特种设备社会风险综合评估模型、生命风险评估模型、经济风险评估模型和环境风险评估模型。确定了承压类特种设备社会风险分级标准和分级预警方法。研究了设备社会风险预警方法的应用范围和应用方法。6)分析承压类特种设备安全的利益相关者,明确政府主体和企业主体的相互博弈对其的重要影响。对承压类特种设备安全监管的“委托—代理”关系进行分析。比较研究不同策略模式对政府行政作为和企业安全投入的影响。综合分析博弈结果,制定了承压类特种设备社会风险的综合控制策略和分级控制策略。7)以锅炉为例,进行了承压类特种设备社会风险预警方法的实证分析,实证结果表明该预警方法符合实际情况,具有实用性和科学性。8)对承压类特种设备整体以及压力容器的安全监管博弈过程分别进行了实证分析,研究表明:2001-2014年间,我国政府监管部门和企业之间的相互博弈促使了事故水平的下降。
[Abstract]:Pressure-bearing special equipment has special professional technology and potential high risk. The accidents of special pressure equipment may not only cause heavy casualties, but also cause huge economic losses, bad social effects and environmental problems. Under the background of rapid growth of equipment quantity and limited resources of supervision, it is of great significance to implement risk-based supervision on special equipment under pressure. The main research results of this paper are as follows: (1) the concept of risk-based supervision of special pressure equipment is put forward, and the three-dimensional early-warning structure system and warning process of social risk of special pressure equipment are constructed. It includes two parts: single index risk early warning and social risk comprehensive warning. (2) the social risk of special pressure equipment is scientifically defined, and the evolution mechanism of social risk of pressure special equipment is analyzed and studied. It is clear that the social risk level of special equipment is affected by the inherent risk of the equipment and the vulnerability of the disaster bearing body, among which, the disaster bearing body includes personnel, Equipment, facility and environment. 3) the factors influencing the social risk of special equipment are systematically identified from the two dimensions of inherent risk of equipment and vulnerability of disaster bearing body, respectively. The meaning of each factor is explained in detail. 4) based on the result of identification of the influencing factors, the social risk early warning index system of "2 categories-29 indexes" is constructed, and the index weight is determined. And the dimensionless treatment of each early warning index, the evaluation function and evaluation standard of each early warning index are determined.) the comprehensive social risk assessment model and the life risk assessment model of the special equipment of bearing pressure are constructed, respectively. Economic risk assessment model and environmental risk assessment model. The classification standard of social risk and the method of classification and early warning for special equipment of bearing pressure are determined. The scope of application and application method of early warning method of equipment social risk are studied. 6) the stakeholders of special equipment safety under pressure are analyzed, and the important influence of the game between government and enterprise is clarified. This paper analyzes the relationship between entrustment and agent of safety supervision of special pressure equipment. This paper compares the effects of different strategies on government administration and enterprise security investment. This paper analyzes the game result synthetically, and formulates the comprehensive control strategy and classified control strategy .7 of the social risk of the special equipment of pressure type) taking boiler as an example, carries on the demonstration analysis of the social risk early warning method of the special equipment of the pressure type. The empirical results show that the early warning method accords with the actual situation and has practicability and scientifical.8) the game process of safety supervision and control for the whole pressurized special equipment and the pressure vessel is analyzed respectively. The research shows that from 2001 to 2014, The mutual game between the government supervision department and enterprises promotes the decline of accident level.
【学位授予单位】：中国地质大学(北京)
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2015
【分类号】：X924.4

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