改进灰色理论在海上交通事故预测中的应用

发布时间：2018-10-10 07:27

【摘要】：为了提高海上交通事故预测精度,实现对海上交通事故的准确预测,构造一种改进的灰色预测模型,对传统的灰色预测模型GM(1,1)基本原理和预测精度进行阐述,建立灰色预测模型;引入弱化算子序列对灰色预测模型进行改进,在已有的二阶弱化算子研究的基础上,设计一种改进的灰色预测模型,很大程度上提高了传统灰色预测模型的精度;以2004—2014年海上交通事故数为基础,进行传统灰色模型预测、二阶弱化模型预测和改进模型预测,并绘制出3种预测模型的实际值和预测值的拟合曲线图;结果表明:改进模型的4项预测精度指标和拟合曲线都较另外2种模型要好,能够真实反映海上交通事故的未来发展趋势。
[Abstract]:In order to improve the accuracy of marine traffic accident prediction and realize the accurate prediction of maritime traffic accident, an improved grey forecasting model is constructed. The basic principle and prediction accuracy of the traditional grey prediction model GM (1 / 1) are expounded. The grey prediction model is established, the grey prediction model is improved by introducing the weakening operator sequence, and an improved grey prediction model is designed on the basis of the existing research on the second-order weakening operator. The precision of the traditional grey forecasting model has been improved to a great extent. Based on the number of marine traffic accidents from 2004 to 2014, the traditional grey model prediction, the second-order weakening model prediction and the improved model prediction have been carried out. The results show that the four prediction precision indexes and fitting curves of the improved model are better than those of the other two models. Can truly reflect the future trend of maritime traffic accidents.
【作者单位】：大连海事大学航海学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(61401057) 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(3132015016,3132015017) 马六甲和新加坡海峡超大型船舶航行风险分析及对策研究项目(01831508) 海上交通安全风险研究(80714003) 基于海事宽带业务的DTN网络资源自适应分配优化策略研究
【分类号】：U698.6

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