山区公路行车风险评价方法与防控措施研究

发布时间：2018-10-12 13:07

【摘要】：山区公路线形复杂,急弯路段较多,陡坡路段频繁,道路狭窄,山区地形地势复杂多变,山区公路布线困难;山区公路复杂的路侧环境和天气条件,造成行车视距不足,驾驶员安全驾驶困难,容易诱发交通事故,且事故后果严重,路面状况不良和安全设施不完善也是引起交通事故的重要因素,因此山区公路行车安全研究依然迫切。国内外对于道路安全研究主要集中在道路几何线形设计对道路安全的影响,山区公路行车风险评价方法研究成果不足。本文采取风险评价研究山区公路行车安全,深入研究风险评价方法原理以及评价模型,研究每种评价方法的优缺点和适用领域,以及山区公路行车风险评价特点和要求,采用主成分分析法和层次分析——模糊综合评价相结合的方法评价山区公路行车风险。首先,建立山区公路行车风险因素识别体系,划分山区公路行车风险因素类别,即道路线形、行车环境和其它道路因素,建立山区公路行车风险评价指标集,针对不同风险评价指标建立相应风险评价指标子集,确定风险评价指标子集的风险概率值,并采用事故调查法和专家评估法确定风险后果的风险损失值。采用主层次分析法的原理,将山区公路行车风险评价指标的风险概率值和风险损失后果值合并为相应风险评价指数,采用层次分析法确定山区公路行车风险评价指标的修正权重值。建立风险评价等级隶属度函数,计算评价指数对风险等级的隶属程度,采用模糊数学计算方法,结合风险评价指标的风险等级隶属度和修正权重值,建立山区公路行车风险评价模型。针对不同行车环境条件下,将风险评价指数代入风险评价模型,对山区公路行车风险进行综合评价。其次,按照山区公路交通事故率和事故损失严重程度,确定山区公路行车风险等级划分标准,将山区公路行车风险划分为五个等级,分别是轻微风险、较低风险、一般风险、严重风险和灾难性风险。分析不同等级风险的形成原因,针对不同风险等级的山区公路,从完善安保设施、行车速度控制、交通管制和紧急救援等方面采取相应的风险防控措施。最后,选取212线西昌缸窑至宁南葫芦口(汤家坪)路段,作为山区公路行车风险评价对象,采用层次分析—模糊综合评价方法评价该路段的行车风险等级。通过分析行车风险评价过程和评价结果,研究山区公路行车风险评价方法的实用性和合理性。本文通过分析风险评价常用的方法,结合山区公路行车风险评价原理,提出层次分析法—模糊数学评价模型来研究山区公路行车风险等级,针对不同风险等级提出相应风险防控措施,为山区公路采取科学的管理措施提供依据。
[Abstract]:The road alignment of mountain area is complex, the road with sharp bend is more, the steep slope section is frequent, the road is narrow, the terrain of mountain area is complex and changeable, the mountain road routing is difficult, and the complicated road side environment and weather condition of mountain road result in insufficient driving horizon. It is difficult for drivers to drive safely, and it is easy to induce traffic accidents, and the consequences of accidents are serious. Poor road conditions and imperfect safety facilities are also the important factors causing traffic accidents. Therefore, the study of road safety in mountain areas is still urgent. The research on road safety at home and abroad mainly focuses on the influence of road geometric alignment design on road safety. In this paper, risk assessment is adopted to study road safety in mountainous areas, and the principles and models of risk assessment methods are deeply studied. The advantages, disadvantages and applicable fields of each evaluation method, as well as the characteristics and requirements of risk assessment for mountain highway driving are studied. The principal component analysis (PCA) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) are used to evaluate the traffic risk of mountain highway. First of all, establish the mountain road driving risk factors identification system, divide the mountain road driving risk factors into categories, that is, road alignment, driving environment and other road factors, establish the mountain road driving risk evaluation index set. The corresponding risk evaluation index subset is established for different risk evaluation indexes, the risk probability value of the risk evaluation index subset is determined, and the risk loss value of the risk consequence is determined by the accident investigation method and the expert evaluation method. Based on the principle of principal analytic hierarchy process (PCA), the risk probability value and risk loss consequence value of risk assessment index of mountain highway driving are combined into corresponding risk evaluation index. Using AHP to determine the revised weight value of the evaluation index of highway driving risk in mountain area. The membership degree function of risk evaluation grade is established, the membership degree of evaluation index to risk grade is calculated, the fuzzy mathematics method is adopted, and the risk grade membership degree and modified weight value of risk evaluation index are combined. The risk assessment model of mountain highway is established. Aiming at different driving environment conditions, the risk assessment index is added to the risk assessment model to evaluate the driving risk of mountain highway. Secondly, according to the traffic accident rate and the severity of accident loss, the paper determines the classification standard of mountain highway traffic risk, and divides the mountain road driving risk into five grades, namely, minor risk, lower risk and general risk. Serious and catastrophic risks. This paper analyzes the causes of the formation of different risk levels, and takes corresponding risk prevention and control measures from the aspects of perfecting security facilities, driving speed control, traffic control and emergency rescue for mountain highways with different risk levels. Finally, the section from Xichang cylinder Kiln to Hulukou (Tangjiaping) of line 212 is selected as the risk assessment object of mountain highway, and the traffic risk grade of this section is evaluated by the method of AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Based on the analysis of the evaluation process and results of driving risk, the practicability and reasonableness of the evaluation method of highway driving risk in mountainous area are studied. By analyzing the common methods of risk assessment and combining with the principle of mountain highway traffic risk evaluation, this paper puts forward the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) -fuzzy mathematics evaluation model to study the grade of mountain highway traffic risk. The corresponding risk prevention and control measures are put forward in view of different risk grades, which provide the basis for scientific management measures of mountain highway.
【学位授予单位】：重庆交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：U492.84

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