基于SDG和灰色聚类的系统故障风险评估方法

发布时间：2018-10-18 18:16

【摘要】：开展风险评估研究对于提高民航安全具有重要意义.传统的系统故障风险评估的分析对象是故障模式,在实际中一个故障模式往往可作为另一故障模式的原因或者影响,故障影响是一个逐渐变化的过程.为更准确、客观地评估系统故障风险,本文把故障模式的传播过程描述为一故障链,运用SDG模型推理得出故障模式导致的各种故障序列,将故障模式及其各种后续故障序列看作灰色系统,将风险评估过程视为一灰色系统工程,用灰色聚类决策对这些序列进行风险评估,解决了风险评估过程中评价指标和属性值难以确定和量化,风险分析和评估缺乏系统性和一致性的问题.应用实例表明,基于SDG和灰色聚类决策的风险评估方法能有效地应用于民机系统故障风险评估.本论文研究结果对于复杂系统的故障风险分析具有重要的参考价值.
[Abstract]:It is of great significance to carry out risk assessment research to improve civil aviation safety. The traditional analysis object of system fault risk assessment is fault mode. In practice, one fault mode can be used as the cause or influence of another fault mode, and the fault impact is a gradual change process. In order to evaluate the system fault risk more accurately and objectively, the propagation process of the fault mode is described as a fault chain, and the various fault sequences caused by the fault mode are deduced by using the SDG model. The failure mode and its subsequent fault sequences are regarded as grey systems, and the risk assessment process is regarded as a grey system engineering. It solves the problem that the evaluation index and attribute value are difficult to determine and quantify in the process of risk assessment, and the risk analysis and evaluation lack of systematic and consistent. The application example shows that the risk assessment method based on SDG and grey clustering decision can be effectively applied to the fault risk assessment of civil aircraft system. The results of this paper have important reference value for fault risk analysis of complex systems.
【作者单位】：南京财经大学管理科学与工程学院;南京航空航天大学民航学院;上海工程技术大学航空运输学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71433006) 国家自然科学基金与中国民航联合资助基金重点项目(60939003)
【分类号】：V328;V267

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