灾害天气侵袭交通系统的危害扩散机理研究
[Abstract]:It is an important research topic in disaster response and crisis management to study the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather damage. By analyzing the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather, this paper provides the basic mechanism support for the management of public crisis caused by disaster weather. In this paper, the process of crisis caused by disaster weather attacking traffic system is regarded as a nuclear collapse process, whose collapse order is from physical network to social network, and then to cause crisis. It is helpful to understand and understand the damage diffusion process caused by meteorological disasters and provide enlightenment for the crisis management of transportation system damaged by severe weather. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the concept of disaster weather is defined, and the disaster weather is classified. Analysis of the impact of disaster weather on road conditions, vehicles, travelers, traffic control and other traffic factors. The fault tree tool is used to analyze the types and characteristics of traffic system faults caused by disaster weather. Secondly, the damage diffusion model of transportation system damaged by disaster weather is studied. After the disaster weather destroys the transportation system, it has a coupling effect on other infrastructure, and an embedded diffusion effect on the social network and governance network. The effects of two modes of coupling and embeddedness on hazard diffusion are analyzed by using system dynamics. Based on the causal analysis of the chain of hazard diffusion in the snow disaster in South China in 2008, this paper analyzes the variables in each evolution path, and points out the harm evolution path from physical network to social network after the disaster weather attacks the transportation system. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the causes of the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and control of transportation system damaged by disaster weather. From the point of view of coupling and embeddedness, this paper analyzes the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and management caused by disaster weather. On this basis, the interaction caused by disaster weather damage transportation system is pointed out, and the manifestation of this interaction is analyzed based on the related cases (2008 Southern Snow disaster case), and the interaction between coupling and embeddedness is analyzed. It is found that the interaction has a positive effect on hazard diffusion. The systematic analysis of the process of hazard diffusion after the disaster weather destroys the transportation system is beneficial to the further improvement of the effect of crisis management, and the analysis of the coupling, embeddedness, interaction and so on in the process of hazard diffusion. It is helpful to understand the process of hazard diffusion, and therefore to design and develop relevant control measures.
【学位授予单位】:哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】:硕士
【学位授予年份】:2013
【分类号】:U492.8;P429
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