灾害天气侵袭交通系统的危害扩散机理研究
发布时间：2018-10-20 07:58
【摘要】：灾害天气破坏交通系统的危害扩散过程研究是灾害应对及危机管理的一个重要研究议题。论文通过深入分析灾害天气破坏交通系统的危害扩散过程，为治理由灾害天气引发的公共危机提供基础性的机理支撑。 本文将灾害天气侵袭交通系统而引发危机的过程视为一个核塌缩过程，其塌缩顺序是从物理网络到社会网络，进而引发危机。这有助于深入认识和理解气象灾害致灾的危害扩散过程，进而为恶劣天气损坏交通系统的危机治理提供启迪。 研究注重分析危害扩散过程的耦合性和嵌入性特点，主要内容如下： 首先界定了灾害天气的概念，对灾害天气进行分类。分析灾害天气对道路状况、交通工具、出行者、交通管控等这些交通要素的影响。利用故障树工具对灾害天气造成交通系统故障的种类及特征进行分析。其次，对灾害天气破坏交通系统的危害扩散模式进行了研究。灾害天气破坏交通系统后对其他基础设施造成耦合性的危害扩散影响，对社会网络和治理网络造成嵌入性的危害扩散影响；利用系统动力学分析了耦合性和嵌入性两种模式对危害扩散的作用和影响。结合2008年南方雪灾中的危害扩散链条进行因果分析，对其中的各个演化路径中的变量进行分析，进而指出在灾害天气侵袭交通系统后从物理网络到社会网络的危害演化路径。再次，分析了灾害天气破坏交通系统的危害扩散治理困境的存在原因。从耦合性和嵌入性角度分析在灾害天气引发的危害扩散治理困境。在此基础上，指出灾害天气破坏交通系统引发的交互影响，结合相关案例（2008年南方雪灾案例）分析了这种交互影响的表现形式，并对耦合性和嵌入性的交互作用加以分析，发现交互影响对于危害扩散具有助推作用。 系统分析灾害天气破坏交通系统后的危害扩散过程，，有利于危机治理效果的进一步改善；对危害扩散过程中存在的耦合性、嵌入性、交互影响等的分析，有助于深入理解危害扩散过程，从而有利于相关治理措施的设计和制定。
[Abstract]:It is an important research topic in disaster response and crisis management to study the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather damage. By analyzing the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather, this paper provides the basic mechanism support for the management of public crisis caused by disaster weather. In this paper, the process of crisis caused by disaster weather attacking traffic system is regarded as a nuclear collapse process, whose collapse order is from physical network to social network, and then to cause crisis. It is helpful to understand and understand the damage diffusion process caused by meteorological disasters and provide enlightenment for the crisis management of transportation system damaged by severe weather. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the concept of disaster weather is defined, and the disaster weather is classified. Analysis of the impact of disaster weather on road conditions, vehicles, travelers, traffic control and other traffic factors. The fault tree tool is used to analyze the types and characteristics of traffic system faults caused by disaster weather. Secondly, the damage diffusion model of transportation system damaged by disaster weather is studied. After the disaster weather destroys the transportation system, it has a coupling effect on other infrastructure, and an embedded diffusion effect on the social network and governance network. The effects of two modes of coupling and embeddedness on hazard diffusion are analyzed by using system dynamics. Based on the causal analysis of the chain of hazard diffusion in the snow disaster in South China in 2008, this paper analyzes the variables in each evolution path, and points out the harm evolution path from physical network to social network after the disaster weather attacks the transportation system. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the causes of the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and control of transportation system damaged by disaster weather. From the point of view of coupling and embeddedness, this paper analyzes the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and management caused by disaster weather. On this basis, the interaction caused by disaster weather damage transportation system is pointed out, and the manifestation of this interaction is analyzed based on the related cases (2008 Southern Snow disaster case), and the interaction between coupling and embeddedness is analyzed. It is found that the interaction has a positive effect on hazard diffusion. The systematic analysis of the process of hazard diffusion after the disaster weather destroys the transportation system is beneficial to the further improvement of the effect of crisis management, and the analysis of the coupling, embeddedness, interaction and so on in the process of hazard diffusion. It is helpful to understand the process of hazard diffusion, and therefore to design and develop relevant control measures.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8;P429
[Abstract]:It is an important research topic in disaster response and crisis management to study the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather damage. By analyzing the damage diffusion process of transportation system caused by disaster weather, this paper provides the basic mechanism support for the management of public crisis caused by disaster weather. In this paper, the process of crisis caused by disaster weather attacking traffic system is regarded as a nuclear collapse process, whose collapse order is from physical network to social network, and then to cause crisis. It is helpful to understand and understand the damage diffusion process caused by meteorological disasters and provide enlightenment for the crisis management of transportation system damaged by severe weather. The main contents of this paper are as follows: firstly, the concept of disaster weather is defined, and the disaster weather is classified. Analysis of the impact of disaster weather on road conditions, vehicles, travelers, traffic control and other traffic factors. The fault tree tool is used to analyze the types and characteristics of traffic system faults caused by disaster weather. Secondly, the damage diffusion model of transportation system damaged by disaster weather is studied. After the disaster weather destroys the transportation system, it has a coupling effect on other infrastructure, and an embedded diffusion effect on the social network and governance network. The effects of two modes of coupling and embeddedness on hazard diffusion are analyzed by using system dynamics. Based on the causal analysis of the chain of hazard diffusion in the snow disaster in South China in 2008, this paper analyzes the variables in each evolution path, and points out the harm evolution path from physical network to social network after the disaster weather attacks the transportation system. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the causes of the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and control of transportation system damaged by disaster weather. From the point of view of coupling and embeddedness, this paper analyzes the dilemmas of hazard diffusion and management caused by disaster weather. On this basis, the interaction caused by disaster weather damage transportation system is pointed out, and the manifestation of this interaction is analyzed based on the related cases (2008 Southern Snow disaster case), and the interaction between coupling and embeddedness is analyzed. It is found that the interaction has a positive effect on hazard diffusion. The systematic analysis of the process of hazard diffusion after the disaster weather destroys the transportation system is beneficial to the further improvement of the effect of crisis management, and the analysis of the coupling, embeddedness, interaction and so on in the process of hazard diffusion. It is helpful to understand the process of hazard diffusion, and therefore to design and develop relevant control measures.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：U492.8;P429
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