人员密集场所应急疏散模型研究

发布时间：2018-10-21 10:45

【摘要】：随着人类社会的发展与进步，人们对自身的安全意识逐渐提高，但是在生活工作中又不得不经常出入一些人员比较密集的场所，如会场、商场等等，人口密集场所极容易发生突发事件、群死群伤事故，往往造成人员的严重伤亡。因此，人口密集场所中人员的应急疏散问题日益受到人们的关注，人员密集场所人群在发生突发事件时能够安全、快速、有序地疏散，在短时间内安全地疏散转移高密集人群,实施科学的应急疏散策略，是减少灾害(事故)后果严重性及伤亡的重要措施和手段。因此，对人口密集场所人员疏散进行研究，具有十分重要的意义。本文针对人口密集场所应急疏散问题，在相关研究背景、研究现状的基础上，通过对不同的人员安全疏散模型的研究，对疏散问题做出不同分析、描述，找出人员应急疏散过程中的主要矛盾，解决应急疏散问题的关键不是描述某个瞬时疏散人员群集的状态，而是应该能够反映整个疏散过程，建立以安全疏散时间最短为目标的最优化模型。首先对最优化理论，群集流动理论进行介绍；然后介绍LINGO软件的有关概念，在规划模型求解中的应用，同其他求解软件进行比较研究，LINGO系统在线性、非线性和整数规划求解程序上的优势；接着对单层人员应急疏散进行分析，主要分为单出口和多出口两个方面，单出口疏散是一切疏散研究的基础，在此基础上建立单层多出口应急安全疏散模型，在建立模型过程中，考虑的每个疏散人员的安全，运用了求整计算，在考虑整体人员疏散的同时，尽量保证疏散中个体的安全。再运用LINGO软件求解的基础上，对求解结果进行分析验证，优化求解结果，把定量的结果进行变量的转换，，使结果更加符合实际情况需要；最后是对双层多出口应急疏散的研究，深入分析上下两层疏散人员在进行疏散时所需要的疏散时间问题，分别就其疏散时间的不同立建立两个安全疏散模型，着眼于实际安全疏散情况的需要，选择适合的疏散模型，通过相应实例的验证，确定两类安全疏散模型的可行性。为模型的实际应用、制定应急疏散方案提供依据。
[Abstract]:With the development and progress of human society, people's awareness of their own safety has been gradually improved, but in their daily life and work, they often have to go to and from places with relatively dense staff, such as venues, shopping malls, and so on. People in densely populated places are prone to sudden events, mass death and injuries, which often result in serious casualties. Therefore, people pay more and more attention to the emergency evacuation of people in densely populated places. People in densely populated places can safely, quickly and orderly evacuate, and safely evacuate and transfer high-density people in a short period of time. The implementation of scientific emergency evacuation strategy is an important measure and means to reduce the severity of disaster (accident) consequences and casualties. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the evacuation of people in densely populated places. In this paper, the emergency evacuation problem in densely populated areas is analyzed and described according to the background and current situation of the relevant research, through the study of different safety evacuation models. The key to solve the emergency evacuation problem is not to describe the state of an instantaneous evacuation group, but to reflect the whole evacuation process. An optimization model aiming at the shortest safe evacuation time is established. This paper first introduces the optimization theory and cluster flow theory, then introduces the related concepts of LINGO software, its application in programming model solving, and compares it with other solving software. The LINGO system is linear. The advantages of nonlinear and integer programming solutions, and then the analysis of single-level emergency evacuation, which is mainly divided into two aspects: single exit and multiple exits, and single exit evacuation is the basis of all evacuation research. On this basis, the single-layer multi-exit emergency evacuation model is established. In the process of establishing the model, the safety of each evacuee is calculated by using the integral calculation, and the individual safety in the evacuation is guaranteed at the same time as the whole evacuation is considered. On the basis of LINGO software, the solution results are analyzed and verified, the results are optimized, and the quantitative results are transformed into variables to make the results more in line with the actual situation. Finally, the study on the double-layer multi-exit emergency evacuation is carried out. This paper deeply analyzes the evacuation time of the upper and lower floor evacuees, establishes two safety evacuation models according to the different evacuation time, and selects the appropriate evacuation model according to the needs of the actual evacuation situation. The feasibility of two kinds of safety evacuation models is determined through the verification of corresponding examples. It provides the basis for the practical application of the model and the formulation of emergency evacuation plan.
【学位授予单位】：辽宁科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：X913;D035.2

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